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5pm edt Update: T. S. Beryl's Landfall Will be Near Jacksonville Around Midnight

By: National Hurricane Center (NHC) with remarks by Oscar Fann WTVY-TV meteorologist
By: National Hurricane Center (NHC) with remarks by Oscar Fann WTVY-TV meteorologist

Tropical Storm Beryl Advisory Number 8
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
500 Pm Edt Sun May 27 2012
Beryl To Make Landfall Tonight...Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Near The Coast Of Northeastern Florida...

Summary Of 500 Pm Edt...2100 Utc...Information
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Location...30.0n 80.3w
About 85 Mi...140 Km Ese Of Jacksonville Florida
About 110 Mi...175 Km Se Of Brunswick Georgia
Maximum Sustained Winds...65 Mph...100 Km/H
Present Movement...W Or 265 Degrees At 10 Mph...17 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...996 Mb...29.41 Inches

Watches And Warnings
--------------------
Changes With This Advisory...

None.

Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For...
* Volusia/Brevard County Line Florida To Edisto Beach South Carolina

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...Including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...Please Monitor Products Issued By
Your Local National Weather Service Forecast Office.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 500 Pm Edt...2100 Utc...The Center Of Tropical Storm Beryl Was
Located Near Latitude 30.0 North...Longitude 80.3 West.

Beryl Is Moving Toward The West Near 10 Mph...17 Km/H.

A Westward Motion Is Expected To Continue Through Landfall.

After Landfall...Beryl Is Expected To Move Slowly West-Northwestward And Then Turn Northward Over Portions Of Northeastern Florida And Southeastern Georgia On Monday And Monday Night.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 65 Mph...100 Km/H...With Higher
Gusts.

Some Slight Strengthening Is Possible Before Landfall.

Steady Weakening Is Forecast After Landfall And Beryl Is Expected
To Weaken To A Tropical Depression By Monday Night.

Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 115 Miles...
185 Km From The Center. Noaa Buoy 41012 Located About 50 Miles...80 Km...East-Northeast Of St. Augustine Florida Recently Reported Sustained Winds Of 45 Mph...71 Km/H With A Gust To 58 Mph...94 Km/H.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 996 Mb...29.41 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
Wind...Tropical Storm Conditions Are Very Near The Coast Of
Northeastern Florida And Southeastern Georgia. These Conditions Are Expected To Spread Across The Coast During The Next Few Hours And Continue Through Tonight.

Gusts To Hurricane Force Are Possible Over Portions Of Northeastern Florida And Southeastern Georgia Tonight And Early Monday.

Storm Surge...The Combination Of A Storm Surge And The Tide Will
Cause Normally Dry Areas Near The Coast To Be Flooded By Rising
Waters. The Water Could Reach The Following Depths Above Ground If The Peak Surge Occurs At The Time Of High Tide...

Georgia And Northeastern Florida...2 To 4 Ft
Southern South Carolina...1 To 2 Ft

The Deepest Water Will Occur Along The Immediate Coast Near And To The North Of The Landfall Location...Where The Surge Will Be
Accompanied By Large Waves. Surge-Related Flooding Depends On The Relative Timing Of The Surge And The Tidal Cycle...And Can Vary
Greatly Over Short Distances.

Surf...Dangerous Surf Conditions...Including Rip Currents...Are
Expected Along The Coast From Northeastern Florida To North
Carolina Over The Remainder Of The Memorial Day Weekend.

Rainfall...Beryl Is Expected To Produce Total Rain Accumulations Of
4 To 8 Inches...With Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 12 Inches...From
Northern Florida Through Southeastern North Carolina.

Next Advisory
-------------
Next Intermediate Advisory...800 Pm Edt.
Next Complete Advisory...1100 Pm Edt.

Forecaster Cangialosi/Brown

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Tropical Storm Beryl Discussion Number 8
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
500 Pm Edt Sun May 27 2012

Beryl Has Become Better Organized Throughout The Day.

Satellite And Radar Images Indicate That Deep Convection Has Increased In Bands All Around The Center.

In Addition...The Thunderstorm Activity Has Contracted And Dvorak Satellite Classifications Suggest That The System Has Now Become A Tropical Cyclone.

This Change In Status Is Also Supported By The Fsu Phase Space Analysis Of Gfs Fields.

The Initial Intensity Was Increased To 55 Kt At 18z Based On A T3.5
From Tafb And The Increased Organization Since The Time Of The Last Aircraft Mission. Another Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft Is En Route To Investigate The Storm And Will Provide A Better
Assessment Of Its Intensity Shortly.

Beryl Continues Moving Just South Of Due West At About 9 Kt.

This General Motion Is Expected To Continue Through Landfall Tonight As A Mid-Level Ridge To The North Of The Storm Continues To Be The Main Steering Mechanism.

After Landfall...The Ridge Is Forecast To Weaken As A Deep-Layer Trough Moves Eastward Across The United States.

This Steering Pattern Should Cause The Cyclone To Slow Down And Then Gradually Turn Northward And Northeastward.

The Model Guidance Has Come Into Better Agreement This Cycle And Shows The Center Of Beryl Remaining Inland Over The Southeastern United States For At Least 36 Hours.

The Cyclone Is Forecast To Emerge Off The Carolina Coastline In Two To Three Days And Then Accelerate Northeastward Over The Western Atlantic.

The New Nhc Track Forecast Is Very Similar To The Previous One For The First 24 Hours And Then Lies Slightly To The West Of...And Is A Little Slower Than...The Previous Forecast To Be Closer To The Middle Of The Guidance Envelope.

Although Not Explicitly Shown Below...Beryl Could Get A Little Stronger Before It Moves Inland This Evening Or Tonight.

After Landfall...Steady Weakening Is Anticipated And Beryl Is Forecast To Become A Tropical Depression By Monday Night.

Some Restrengthening Is Possible Once Beryl Moves Back Over The Western Atlantic In Two To Three Days. Cooler Waters...Strong Southwesterly Wind Shear...And The Interaction With An Approaching Cold Front Should Cause Extratropical Transition To Occur In About Four Days.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 27/2100z 30.0n 80.3w 55 Kt 65 Mph
12h 28/0600z 30.0n 81.8w 50 Kt 60 Mph...Inland
24h 28/1800z 30.2n 82.8w 35 Kt 40 Mph...Inland
36h 29/0600z 30.6n 83.1w 30 Kt 35 Mph...Inland
48h 29/1800z 31.6n 82.2w 30 Kt 35 Mph...Inland
72h 30/1800z 33.8n 77.0w 35 Kt 40 Mph...Over Water
96h 31/1800z 37.5n 68.0w 40 Kt 45 Mph...Post-Trop/Extratrop
120h 01/1800z 40.0n 56.0w 40 Kt 45 Mph...Post-Trop/Extratrop

Forecaster Cangialosi/Brown

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Remarks by Oscar Fann follow...

Since Saturday afternoon the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has slowly moved the inland path of BERYL farther westward through extreme southern Georgia with each update.

Currently (late Sunday afternoon), NHC still has BERYL almost reaching Valdosta on Monday, then recurving and moving off to the northeast late Monday night or early Tuesday.

Thus, our forecast for the WTVY-TV area has remained essentially unchanged since our first update early Friday morning - until now.

CHANGES to our forecast for the WTVY-TV coverage area:

The changes are for winds and rainfall. Since BERYL is a little stronger at landfall and may not be downgraded to a tropical depression until later in the day Monday, we will make minor adjustments for wind speeds and rainfall amounts.

1st - only slight increases for the winds - look for gusts to be near 20 mph at times for Dothan Monday afternoon. Gusts would be a little higher farther east of Dothan as you would expect.

2nd - rainfall amounts may be slightly higher. Dothan has a good chance of 0.5 to 1.0 inch of rain for the Monday to Wednesday period IF BERYL moves as slow as forecast. Thus, higher rainfall amounts could be expected to the east of Dothan. Generally, lesser rainfall west of Dothan, but there could be some decent rainfall there also.

1 to 2 inches look likely now for parts of southwest Georgia as well as east of the Apalachicola River in the Florida panhandle Sunday night though Wednesday.

If BERYL's direction changes, then obviously the forecast changes, but we don't see that currently.

Still, severe weather potential relating to BERYL remains very low for the WTVY-TV coverage area.

Along the coast -
As expected, beach and boating weather through the Memorial Day weekend have remained unaffected through Sunday.
Monday should see an increase in clouds but not a complete overcast. There will be more sunshine west of Panama City, but even coastal areas just east of Panama City would still have some sunshine.
East of Apalachicola sustained winds could exceed 20 mph at times with higher gusts.
Boating / Marine Advisories might be necessary.
Rain chances appear slight for much of Monday for coastal areas west of Apalachicola.
As we constantly stress - ALWAYS, check with lifeguards and local officals to get the very latest beach & marine conditions BEFORE entering the Gulf waters.

More updates through the holiday weekend here on our website as well as on WTVY-TV's regularly scheduled newscasts.

Oscar


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