Posted: 9:17 PM Aug 3, 2012

Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 10
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1100 Pm Ast Fri Aug 03 2012

Summary Of 1100 Pm Ast...0300 Utc...Information
-----------------------------------------------
Location...13.9n 65.6w
About 315 Mi...505 Km S Of San Juan Puerto Rico
About 795 Mi...1280 Km Ese Of Kingston Jamaica
Maximum Sustained Winds...50 Mph...85 Km/H
Present Movement...W Or 275 Degrees At 18 Mph...30 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...1003 Mb...29.62 Inches

Watches And Warnings
--------------------
There Are No Coastal Watches Or Warnings In Effect.

Interests In Jamaica Should Monitor The Progress Of Ernesto. A
Tropical Storm Watch May Be Required For Portions Of Jamaica On
Saturday.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 1100 Pm Ast...0300 Utc...The Center Of Tropical Storm Ernesto Was Located Near Latitude 13.9 North...Longitude 65.6 West.

Ernesto Is Moving Toward The West Near 18 Mph...30 Km/H...And This General Motion Is Expected To Continue During The Next Couple Of Days.

On The Forecast Track Ernesto Will Move Across The Eastern And Central Caribbean Sea During The Next Day Or Two And Approach Jamaica On Sunday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 50 Mph...85 Km/H...With Higher
Gusts. Slow Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next Couple Of
Days.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 105 Miles...165 Km From The Center.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1003 Mb...29.62 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
Rainfall...Total Rainfall Accumulations Of 2 To 3 Inches With
Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 5 Inches Are Possible Across The Lesser Antilles Through Tonight.

Next Advisory
-------------
Next Complete Advisory...500 Am Ast.

Forecaster Beven


Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 10
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1100 Pm Ast Fri Aug 03 2012

Convection Has Become More Concentrated Near The Center Of Ernesto During The Past Several Hours.

However...Satellite Intensity Estimates And An Abbreviated Hurricane Hunter Mission Suggest That This Has Not Yet Resulted In Intensification.

The Initial Intensity Remains 45 Kt...And The Central Pressure Of 1003 Mb Is Based On Extrapolation Of The Hurricane Hunter Data.

Analysis From Cimss At The University Of Wisconsin Suggest That Vertical Wind Shear Is Decreasing Over Ernesto...And The Outflow Has Improved In The Western Semicircle.

The Initial Motion Is 275/16...A Little Slower Than Before.

A Strong Low/Mid-Level Subtropical Ridge To The North Of Ernesto
Should Keep The Cyclone On A General Westward Track For The Next
36-48 Hr...And The New Forecast Track Is Similar To The Old Track
During This Period.

After That Time...The Track Forecast Becomes Lower Confidence.

The Global Models Forecast A Developing Mid/ Upper-Level Trough Over The Eastern United States From 72-120 Hr... Which Is Expected To Cause A Weakness In The Ridge Over The The Northern Gulf Of Mexico And The Adjacent Land Areas.

The Gfdl... Ukmet...And Nogaps Models Respond To This By Forecasting Ernesto To Move Northwestward Near The Yucatan Channel Into The Southern Gulf Of Mexico.

On The Other Hand...The Ecmwf And Gfs Forecast Ernesto To Be Too Far South To Respond To The Weakness...And Thus Show The Cyclone Moving Inland Over The Southern Yucatan Peninsula Or
Central America.

Based On The Premise That Ernesto Will Be Far Enough North And Strong Enough To Respond To The Weakness...The Latter Part Of The New Forecast Track Is Nudged A Little To The North Of The Previous Forecast.

The Intensity Guidance Remains Very Divergent. The Statistical-
Dynamical Models Forecast Significant Intensification...With The
Lgem Calling For Ernesto To Become A Major Hurricane In 96 Hr. The
Dynamical Models Offer A Dissenting View...With The Gfdl And
Hwrf Predicting Little Change In Strength Until About 96 Hr.

In Addition...The Ecmwf Forecasts Ernesto To Remain Very Weak. It Is
Unclear What Are The Negative Factors That The Dynamical Models Are Seeing...Since The Shear Is Forecast To Be Light After 24 Hr And
The Sea Surface Temperatures Are Very Warm.

The New Intensity Forecast Shows A Little More Intensification Than The Previous Forecast Through 48 Hr. After That...It Is The Same As The Previous Forecast Due To The Divergent Guidance.

Interests In Jamaica Should Monitor The Progress Of Ernesto...As A
Tropical Storm Watch Could Be Required For Portions Of The Island On Saturday.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 04/0300z 13.9n 65.6w 45 Kt 50 Mph
12h 04/1200z 14.2n 67.9w 50 Kt 60 Mph
24h 05/0000z 14.7n 71.3w 55 Kt 65 Mph
36h 05/1200z 15.4n 74.8w 55 Kt 65 Mph
48h 06/0000z 16.1n 77.9w 60 Kt 70 Mph
72h 07/0000z 17.5n 82.0w 65 Kt 75 Mph
96h 08/0000z 19.5n 85.5w 75 Kt 85 Mph
120h 09/0000z 22.0n 88.9w 65 Kt 75 Mph

Forecaster Beven

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