Posted: 9:06 PM Aug 3, 2012

Tropical Depression Six Advisory Number 1
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1100 Pm Ast Fri Aug 03 2012

Summary Of 1100 Pm Ast...0300 Utc...Information
-----------------------------------------------
Location...13.8n 27.8w
About 240 Mi...385 Km Wsw Of The Southernmost Cape Verde Islands
Maximum Sustained Winds...35 Mph...55 Km/H
Present Movement...Wnw Or 290 Degrees At 16 Mph...26 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...1009 Mb...29.80 Inches

Watches And Warnings
--------------------
There Are No Coastal Watches Or Warnings In Effect.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 1100 Pm Ast...0300 Utc...The Center Of Tropical Depression Six
Was Located Near Latitude 13.8 North...Longitude 27.8 West.

The Depression Is Moving Toward The West-Northwest Near 16 Mph...26 Km/H.

This General Motion Should Continue At A Slightly Slower Forward Speed During The Next Two Days.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 35 Mph...55 Km/H...With Higher
Gusts.

Some Intensification Is Anticipated During The Next Day Or Two.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1009 Mb...29.80 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
None

Next Advisory
-------------
Next Complete Advisory...500 Am Ast.

Forecaster Landsea



Tropical Depression Six Discussion Number 1
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1100 Pm Ast Fri Aug 03 2012

The Tropical Wave Which Emerged From West Africa Yesterday Quickly Developed A Well-Defined Center Along With Substantial Deep Convection Today.

The Cold Cloud Tops Are Mainly South Of The Center Due To The Impinging Effects Of Moderate Northeasterly Vertical Shear. Dvorak Current Intensity Numbers At 00z Were 2.0 From Tafb And 1.5 From Sab...And The Convective Structure Has Persisted And Improved Slightly Since That Time.

Thus Advisories Are Being Initiated On Tropical Depression Six.

It Appears That The Genesis Of This Cyclone Was Aided By The Interaction Of The Westward Moving Tropical Wave With An Eastward Moving Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Wave As Depicted By Analyses From Suny-Albany.

Movement Of The Cyclone Is Currently 290 Degrees At 14 Kt...As The
System Is Primarily Being Steered By A Mid To Upper Level Ridge
North Of The Cyclone. Finding The Initial Position Was Substantially Aided By Some Ssmi And Windsat Microwave Imagery From Nrl.

The Tropical Cyclone Should Continue Moving West- Northwest For The Next Day Or Two In The Deep Layer Flow.

After About Two Days...It Is Anticipated That The Cyclone Will Be Weakening And Thus Advected Along Westward By The Lower Tropospheric Winds.

The Forecast Track Follows Closely The Tcva Consensus Of The Dynamical Models.

While The Cyclone Underwent Genesis Rather Quickly Today...It May Be That The System Will Not Develop Much Further.

Currently The Cyclone Is Being Affected By Moderate Northeasterly Vertical Shear While This Should Diminish In About A Day...The Combination Of Only Lukewarm Sea Surface Temperatures And A Fairly Dry Stable Atmosphere May Allow The Cyclone To Peak Only As A Low-End Tropical Storm.

After About Two Days...The System Should Be Weakening And It May No Longer Be A Tropical Cyclone By Day Four Or Five As Suggested By The Global And Regional Hurricane Models.

The Intensity Forecast Is A Blend Of The Statistical Lgem And Ships
Models And The Dynamical Gfdl And Hwrf Models...With A Bit More
Emphasis On The Latter.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 04/0300z 13.8n 27.8w 30 Kt 35 Mph
12h 04/1200z 14.5n 29.5w 35 Kt 40 Mph
24h 05/0000z 15.1n 31.8w 40 Kt 45 Mph
36h 05/1200z 15.4n 34.0w 40 Kt 45 Mph
48h 06/0000z 15.6n 36.0w 35 Kt 40 Mph
72h 07/0000z 16.2n 41.1w 30 Kt 35 Mph
96h 08/0000z 16.5n 47.0w 25 Kt 30 Mph...Post-Trop/Remnt Low
120h 09/0000z 16.5n 53.0w 20 Kt 25 Mph...Post-Trop/Remnt Low

Forecaster Landsea

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