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Tropical Storm Karen Continues Weakening...Barely a Tropical Storm

A weakening Tropical Storm Karen is moving northward toward southeast Louisiana...expected to turn northeast toward the Florida Panhandle...but NOT expected to strengthen...and expected rainfall amounts for the area have noticeably decreased...

A very disorganized Tropical Storm Karen....the primary circulation is located at the upper left of the picture...while the active convective energy (as noted by the bright white clouds) is displaced well southeast...this is due to the strong upper winds shearing and weakening Karen...

Tropical Storm Karen Intermediate Advisory Number 9a
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
700 Am Cdt Sat Oct 05 2013

Karen Moving Northward Toward The Northern Gulf Coast...

Summary Of 700 Am Cdt...1200 Utc...Information
----------------------------------------------
Location...27.5n 91.5w
About 155 Mi...245 Km S Of Morgan City Louisiana
About 185 Mi...295 Km Sw Of The Mouth Of The Mississippi River
Maximum Sustained Winds...40 Mph...65 Km/H
Present Movement...N Or 350 Degrees At 10 Mph...16 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...1008 Mb...29.77 Inches

Watches And Warnings
--------------------
Changes With This Advisory...

None.

Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For...
* Morgan City Louisiana To The Mouth Of The Pearl River

A Tropical Storm Watch Is In Effect For...
* Metropolitan New Orleans
* Lake Maurepas
* Lake Pontchartrain
* East Of The Mouth Of The Pearl River To Indian Pass Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are
Expected Somewhere Within The Warning Area Within 36 Hours.

Maximum Sustained Winds Remain Near 40 Mph...65 Km/H...With Higher Gusts.

Little Change In Strength Is Forecast During The Next 48 Hours.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 115 Miles...185
Km...Mainly To North And East Of The Center.

The Latest Minimum Central Pressure Reported By An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Is 1008 Mb...29.77 Inches.

A Tropical Storm Watch Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are
Possible Within The Watch Area...Generally Within 48 Hours.

Interests Elsewhere Along The Northeastern Coast Of The Gulf Of
Mexico Should Monitor The Progress Of Karen.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...Including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...Please Monitor Products Issued By
Your Local National Weather Service Forecast Office.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 700 Am Cdt...1200 Utc...The Center Of Tropical Storm Karen Was
Located Near Latitude 27.5 North...Longitude 91.5 West.

Karen Is Moving Toward The North Near 10 Mph...16 Km/H.

A Decrease In Forward Speed Is Expected Today...Followed By A Turn Toward The Northeast Tonight And An Increase In Forward Speed On Sunday.

On The Forecast Track...The Center Of Karen Is Anticipated To Be Near The Louisiana Coast In The Tropical Storm Warning Area Tonight Or Sunday Morning.

Maximum Sustained Winds Remain Near 40 Mph...65 Km/H...With Higher Gusts.

Little Change In Strength Is Forecast During The Next 48 Hours.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 115 Miles...185
Km...Mainly To North And East Of The Center.

The Latest Minimum Central Pressure Reported By An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Was 1008 Mb...29.77 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
Wind...Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected Within Portions Of The
Warning Area By This Afternoon. Tropical Storm Conditions Are
Possible In Portions Of The Watch Area Tonight And Sunday.

Storm Surge...The Combination Of Storm Surge And The Tide Will Cause Normally Dry Areas Near The Coast To Be Flooded By Rising Waters. The Water Could Reach The Following Heights Above Ground If The Peak Surge Occurs At The Time Of High Tide...

Terrebonne Bay To West Of Apalachee Bay...1 To 3 Ft
Apalachee Bay Including Cedar Key...2 To 4 Ft
South Of Apalachee Bay To Tampa Bay...1 To 2 Ft

The Highest Water Will Occur Along The Immediate Coast...Where The Surge Will Be Accompanied By Dangerous Waves. Surge-Related Flooding Depends On The Relative Timing Of The Surge And The Tidal Cycle...And Can Vary Greatly Over Short Distances. For Information Specific To Your Area...Please See Products Issued By Your Local National Weather Service Office.

Rainfall...Karen Is Expected To Produce Rainfall Accumulations Of 1
To 3 Inches Over Portions Of The Central Gulf Coast And Southeast
United States Through Monday Evening...Mainly Near And To The Right Of The Path Of The Center. Isolated Storm Total Amounts Of 6 Inches Are Possible Near the Coast.

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Tropical Storm Karen Discussion Number 9
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
400 Am Cdt Sat Oct 05 2013

Karen Remains A Sheared Cyclone This Morning...With The Main
Convective Area Located About 80 N Mi Southeast Of The Center.
Earlier Ascat Overpasses Indicate Winds Of At Best 35 Kt In The
Northeastern Quadrant. There Are Recent Reports From An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Of Stronger Winds In The
Convection...But It Is Unclear How Representative These Winds Are.
The Initial Intensity Is Decreased To 35 Kt Based On The
Scatterometer Data.

Karen Jogged A Bit Northwestward During The Past Several Hours...But It Appears To Have Resumed A North-Northwestward Motion Of 330/7.

The Low/Mid-Level Ridge Currently Steering Karen Should Weaken
Today As A Deep-Layer Trough And Associated Cold Front Move
Eastward Through The Central United States. This Should Cause
Karen To Turn Northward And Then Northeastward During The Next
Couple Of Days.

While The Track Guidance Agrees With This Scenario...There Remains Some Spread On The Timing Of The Northeastward Turn. The New Track Forecast Is Nudged Northward Based On The Initial Position And Motion...And It Calls For The Center To Pass Near Or Over The Mouth Of The Mississippi River In 24-36 Hours...Followed By A Final Landfall In Alabama Or The Western Florida Panhandle Between 36-48 Hours. The New Forecast Track Lies Near The Center Of The Guidance Envelope.

There Are Several Possible Scenarios For The Low Confidence
Intensity Forecast. The Most Likely Scenario...And The One Used In
The New Intensity Forecast...Is That Karen Remains A Sheared System With Little Change In Strength Until Final Landfall. One
Alternative Is Possible Strengthening Before Landfall Due To
Re-Developed Central Convection. While The Dynamical Models
Forecast Upper-Level Winds That Could Allow This To Happen...They
Are For The Most Part Showing No Significant Strengthening As Karen
Approaches Landfall.

A Second Alternative Is That Karen Weakens Below Tropical Storm Strength Before Landfall Due To Either Lack Of Convection Or The Start Of Extratropical Transition. After Landfall...Karen Should Weaken And Become Extratropical As It Merges With The Cold Front.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 05/0900z 27.1n 91.3w 35 Kt 40 Mph
12h 05/1800z 27.6n 91.2w 35 Kt 40 Mph
24h 06/0600z 28.4n 90.5w 35 Kt 40 Mph
36h 06/1800z 29.5n 89.2w 35 Kt 40 Mph
48h 07/0600z 31.2n 86.4w 30 Kt 35 Mph...Inland
72h 08/0600z 35.5n 80.5w 25 Kt 30 Mph...Post-Trop/Extratrop
96h 09/0600z...Dissipated

Forecaster Beven


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