Tropical Storm Ingrid Forecast to be a Hurricane But Headed to Mexico

Tropical Storm Ingrid Intermediate Advisory Number 8a
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
700 Am Cdt Sat Sep 14 2013

...Noaa And Air Force Hurricane Hunter Planes Find Ingrid A Little

Summary Of 700 Am Cdt...1200 Utc...Information
Location...20.3n 94.5w
About 130 Mi...205 Km Ne Of Veracruz Mexico
About 195 Mi...310 Km Ese Of Tuxpan Mexico
Maximum Sustained Winds...65 Mph...105 Km/H
Present Movement...Nne Or 15 Degrees At 5 Mph...8 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...989 Mb...29.20 Inches

Watches And Warnings
Changes With This Advisory...


Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Hurricane Watch Is In Effect For...
* North Of Cabo Rojo To La Pesca

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For...
* Coatzacoalcos To Cabo Rojo

Interests Elsewhere Along The Coast Of Eastern Mexico Should Monitor The Progress Of This System. A Hurricane Warning May Be Necessary For Portions Of The Coast Of Eastern Mexico Later Today.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...Please Monitor
Products Issued By Your National Meteorological Service.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
At 700 Am Cdt...1200 Utc...The Center Of Tropical Storm Ingrid Was
Located By Reconnaissance Planes Near Latitude 20.3 North...
Longitude 94.5 West.

Ingrid Is Moving Toward The North-Northeast Near 5 Mph...8 Km/H.

A Turn To The North With An Increase In Forward Speed Is Expected Today.

Ingrid Should Begin To Move Toward The Northwest On Sunday And Then Turn Toward The West By Sunday Night.

On The Forecast Track...Ingrid Will Approach The Coast In The Hurricane Watch Area On Sunday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Have Increased To Near 65 Mph...105
Km/H...With Higher Gusts. Some Strengthening Is Forecast During
The Next 48 Hours...And Ingrid Is Expected To Become A Hurricane By
Tonight Or Sunday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 80 Miles...130 Km
From The Center.

The Minimum Central Pressure Recently Reported By Both Noaa And Air Force Hurricane Hunter Planes Is 989 Mb...29.20 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
Rainfall...Ingrid Is Expected To Produce 10 To 15 Inches Of Rain Over A Large Part Of Eastern Mexico...With Isolated Amounts Of 25 Inches Possible...Especially In Areas Of Mountainous Terrain. These Rains Are Likely To Result In Life-Threatening Flash Floods And Mud Slides.

Wind...Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected To Affect Portions Of
The Coast Within The Tropical Storm Warning Area Today. Hurricane
Conditions Are Likely In The Hurricane Watch Area By Late Sunday ...With Tropical Storm Conditions Possible By Sunday Morning.
Tropical Storm Ingrid Discussion Number 8
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
400 Am Cdt Sat Sep 14 2013

Satellite Imagery Suggests That Ingrid Has Become A Little Better
Organized During The Past Several Hours...With Cloud Tops Of Colder Than -80c Near The Center And Increasing Outer Banding In All Quadrants Except The Southwest.

A Trmm Overpass At 0420 Utc Showed A Partial Eyewall In The Western Semicircle....Although Data From The Mexican Radar In Alvarado Suggests This Feature May Have Been Transient.

Satellite Intensity Estimates Are 65 Kt From Tafb And 45 Kt From Sab. The Initial Intensity Is Held At 50 Kt...Perhaps Conservatively... Pending The Arrival Of Noaa And Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft In The Next Few Hours.

Ingrid Has Started To Move Slowly North-Northeastward With An
Initial Motion Of 015/3.

A General Northward Motion Is Expected For The Next 12 Hours Or So...Followed By A Turn Toward The Northwest And Then The West As The Storm Encounters Strong Low/Mid-Level Ridging Over The Southern United States.

The Track Guidance Generally Agrees With This Scenario...Although With Some Notable Issues Of Spread.

First...The Gfs And Ecmwf Call For A More Northeastward Initial Motion Before The Westward Turn...With Both Models Lying To The East Of The New Forecast Track.

Second...The Guidance Landfall Points In Mexico Are Spread From Tuxpan To North Of La Pesca. The New Forecast Track Is Similar To The Previous Track And Lies Near The Center Of The Guidance Envelope. However...The Model Spread Indicates A Lower Than Normal Confidence In The Forecast.

The Dynamical Models Forecast That Ingrid Will Continue To
Experience Westerly Vertical Shear During The Next Couple Of Days.
The Ships Model Forecast 15-25 Kt Of Shear During The First 24
Hours...While The Ecmwf Forecasts Less Shear.

The Intensity Guidance Is In Relatively Poor Agreement.

The Ships And Lgem Models Forecast Ingrid To Become A Hurricane By 36 Hours...While The Gfdl And Hwrf Model Forecast The System To Peak In 24 Hours And Subsequently Weaken Before Landfall.

Since The Current Shear Has Not Stopped Ingrid From Intensifying... The New Intensity Forecast Follows The Previous Forecast...Along With Ships And Lgem...And Makes Ingrid A Hurricane In 36 Hours. The Intensity Forecast Is At The Upper Edge Of The Intensity Guidance.

In Addition To The Wind Threat...The Moist Flow Resulting From The
Combination Of Ingrid And Tropical Storm Manuel In The Eastern
Pacific Will Produce Torrential Rains...And Life-Threatening Flooding Over Eastern Mexico Will Remain A Significant Hazard Over The Next Couple Of Days.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 14/0900z 19.8n 95.0w 50 Kt 60 Mph
12h 14/1800z 20.5n 95.0w 55 Kt 65 Mph
24h 15/0600z 21.5n 95.7w 60 Kt 70 Mph
36h 15/1800z 22.2n 96.6w 65 Kt 75 Mph
48h 16/0600z 22.4n 97.7w 70 Kt 80 Mph...Near Coast Of Mexico
72h 17/0600z 22.5n 99.5w 30 Kt 35 Mph...Inland
96h 18/0600z...Dissipated

Forecaster Beven