Tropical Storm Ingrid Forecast to Stay in Extreme SW Gulf; Then Move into Mexico

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Tropical Storm Ingrid Intermediate Advisory Number 4a
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
100 Pm Cdt Fri Sep 13 2013

Tropical Storm Ingrid Nearly Stationary In The Bay Of Campeche...
Torrential Rains Expected Over Eastern Mexico...

Summary Of 100 Pm Cdt...1800 Utc...Information
Location...19.4n 95.4w
About 40 Mi...65 Km Ene Of Veracruz Mexico
Maximum Sustained Winds...45 Mph...75 Km/H
Present Movement...Stationary
Minimum Central Pressure...999 Mb...29.50 Inches

Watches And Warnings
Changes With This Advisory...


Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For...
* Coatzacoalcos To Cabo Rojo

A Tropical Storm Watch Is In Effect For...
* North Of Cabo Rojo To La Pesca

A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are
Expected Somewhere Within The Warning Area Within 36 Hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are
Possible Within The Watch Area...Generally Within 48 Hours.

Interests Elsewhere Along The Coast Of Eastern Mexico Should Monitor
The Progress Of This System.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...Please Monitor
Products Issued By Your National Meteorological Service.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
At 100 Pm Cdt...1800 Utc...The Center Of Tropical Storm Ingrid Was
Located Near Latitude 19.4 North...Longitude 95.4 West.

Ingrid Is Nearly Stationary And Little Motion Is Expected Today.

A Motion Toward The North-Northwest Should Begin Late Tonight Or On Saturday.

On The Forecast Track...Ingrid Will Be Moving Very Close To The Coast Of Mexico During The Next Couple Of Days.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 45 Mph...75 Km/H...With Higher
Gusts. Some Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next 48 Hours.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 35 Miles...55 Km
From The Center.

The Latest Minimum Central Pressure Estimated From A Dropsonde
Released By The Noaa Gulfstream Jet Was 999 Mb...29.50 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
Rainfall...Ingrid Is Expected To Produce 10 To 15 Inches Of
Rain Over A Large Part Of Eastern Mexico...With Isolated Amounts
Of 25 Inches Possible...Especially In Areas Of Mountainous
Terrain. These Rains Are Likely To Result In Life-Threatening Flash
Floods And Mud Slides.

Wind...Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected To Reach The Coast
Within The Warning Area Later Today.


Tropical Storm Ingrid Discussion Number 4
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1000 Am Cdt Fri Sep 13 2013

Satellite Imagery Indicates That The Convection Has Increased In
Size...But It Has Not Changed Very Much In Organization.

A Reconnaissance Plane...However...Reported Flight-Level Winds Of 45 Knots When It Departed The Cyclone...Along With Bias-Corrected Sfmr Winds Of 42 Kt. The Initial Intensity Has Been Adjusted Upward To 40 Knots...And A Name Has Been Assigned To The System.

The Central Pressure Is Quite Low...And There Is A Well-Established Low-Level Circulation. Assuming That The Shear Decreases During The Next 48 Hours Or So...The Nhc Forecast Calls For Gradual Strengthening.

Although The Nhc 48-Hour Forecast Calls For 55 Kt...Ingrid Could Be
A Little Stronger Than That At Landfall. The Intensity Forecast Is
A Little Bit Above The Model Consensus.

As Anticipated...The Cyclone Has Been Drifting Westward Or Moving
Erratically. As Soon As The Mid-Level Ridge Currently Located Over
Texas...And Which Has The Cyclone Trapped In The Bay Of Campeche... Shifts Eastward...Ingrid Will Begin To Move Toward The
North-Northwest And Then Northwestward Very Near The Coast Of

The Track Guidance Is Not In Good Short Term Agreement.

The Hwrf Moves The Cyclone Inland In About A Day While The Ecmwf Forecasts A More Northerly Track...Keeping The Cyclone Over Water Longer.

Eventually...All Models Turn The Cyclone Toward The Coast Of Mexico
And Bring The Cyclone Inland Betwen 2 And 3 Days.

It Must Be Emphasized That This Weather Pattern Will Produce
Torrential Rains. The Main Hazard From This Cyclone In The Next
Couple Of Days Will Be Life-Threatening Flooding Over Eastern

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 13/1500z 19.4n 95.3w 40 Kt 45 Mph
12h 14/0000z 19.5n 95.4w 40 Kt 45 Mph
24h 14/1200z 20.5n 95.7w 45 Kt 50 Mph
36h 15/0000z 21.3n 96.0w 50 Kt 60 Mph
48h 15/1200z 22.0n 97.0w 55 Kt 65 Mph
72h 16/1200z 23.0n 99.0w 35 Kt 40 Mph...Inland
96h 17/1200z 23.0n 100.0w 20 Kt 25 Mph...Post-Trop/Remnt Low
120h 18/1200z...Dissipated

Forecaster Avila