Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 24
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1100 Pm Edt Sun Aug 26 2012

Summary Of 1100 Pm Edt...0300 Utc...Information
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Location...24.2n 82.9w
About 75 Mi...120 Km Wsw Of Key West Florida
About 510 Mi...820 Km Se Of The Mouth Of The Mississippi River
Maximum Sustained Winds...65 Mph...100 Km/H
Present Movement...Wnw Or 285 Degrees At 14 Mph...22 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...993 Mb...29.32 Inches

Watches And Warnings
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Changes With This Advisory...

The Tropical Storm Warning Along The East Coast Of Florida Has Been Discontinued North Of Jupiter Inlet.

Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Hurricane Warning Is In Effect For...
* East Of Morgan City Louisiana To Destin Florida...Including
Metropolitan New Orleans...Lake Pontchartrain...And Lake Maurepas

A Hurricane Watch Is In Effect For...
* East Of Destin To Indian Pass Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For...
* The Florida Peninsula From Jupiter Inlet Southward On The
East Coast And From Tarpon Springs Southward On The West Coast.
* Florida Keys...Including The Dry Tortugas And Florida Bay
* Lake Okeechobee
* East Of Destin Florida To The Suwannee River

A Hurricane Warning Means That Hurricane Conditions Are Expected
Somewhere Within The Warning Area. A Warning Is Typically Issued
36 Hours Before The Anticipated First Occurrence Of
Tropical-Storm-Force Winds...Conditions That Make Outside
Preparations Difficult Or Dangerous. Preparations To Protect Life
And Property Should Be Rushed To Completion.

A Hurricane Watch Means That Hurricane Conditions Are Possible
Within The Watch Area. A Watch Is Typically Issued 48 Hours
Before The Anticipated First Occurrence Of Tropical-Storm-Force
Winds...Conditions That Make Outside Preparations Difficult Or
Dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are
Expected Somewhere Within The Warning Area Within 36 Hours.

Watches Or Warnings May Be Extended Westward Along The Coast Of Louisiana Early Monday.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...Including Possible
Inland Watches And Warnings...Please Monitor Products Issued By
Your Local National Weather Service Forecast Office.
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Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook

At 1100 Pm Edt...0300 Utc...The Center Of Tropical Storm Isaac Was
Located Near Latitude 24.2 North...Longitude 82.9 West.

Isaac Is Moving Toward The West-Northwest Near 14 Mph...22 Km/H. A Gradual Turn Toward The Northwest With A Decrease In Forward Speed Is Expected Over The Next 48 Hours.

On The Forecast Track...The Center Is Expected To Move Away From The Florida Keys Tonight... Move Over The Eastern Gulf Of Mexico On Monday...And Approach The Northern Gulf Coast On Tuesday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 65 Mph...100 Km/H...With Higher
Gusts. Some Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next 48 Hours...
And Isaac Is Expected To Become A Hurricane In A Day Or So.

Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 205 Miles...
335 Km...Mainly To The Northeast Of The Center. Sustained Winds Of
38 Mph With A Gust To 56 Mph Has Recently Been Reported At Opa
Locka Airport Near Miami Florida.

The Latest Minimum Central Pressure Estimated From Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Data Is 993 Mb...29.32 Inches.
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Hazards Affecting Land

Rainfall...Total Rainfall Accumulations Of 4 To 8 Inches...With
Maximum Amounts Of 10 Inches...Are Possible Across The Florida
Keys And The Southern Half Of The Florida Peninsula. Total
Rainfall Amounts Of 5 To 10 Inches...With Maximum Amounts Of 15
Inches...Are Possible Along The Eastern And Central Gulf Coast.

Wind...Tropical Storm Conditions Are Occurring Over Portions Of
Southern Florida And The Florida Keys...And Should Spread Northward Along The Florida West Coast In The Tropical Storm Warning Area.

Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected To Reach The Northern Gulf
Coast In The Warning Area By Late Monday...With Hurricane
Conditions Expected On Tuesday.

Storm Surge...The Combination Of A Storm Surge And The Tide Will
Cause Normally Dry Areas Near The Coast To Be Flooded By Rising
Waters. The Water Could Reach The Following Depths Above Ground If The Peak Surge Occurs At The Time Of High Tide...

(NOTE: WTVY-TV Gulf residents please read...)
* Northern Gulf Coast Within The Hurricane Warning Area...6 To 12 Ft
* Remainder Of The Florida Panhandle And Apalachee Bay...4 To 7 Ft

* Florida West Coast South Of Apalachee Bay...2 To 4 Ft
* Southeast Florida Coast And The Florida Keys...1 To 3 Ft
* Central And Western Cuba...1 To 3 Ft
* Northwestern Bahamas...1 To 3 Ft

The Deepest Water Will Occur Along The Immediate Coast In Areas Of Onshore Flow. Surge-Related Flooding Depends On The Relative Timing Of The Surge And The Tidal Cycle...And Can Vary Greatly Over Short Distances. For Information Specific To Your Area...Please See
Products Issued By Your Local Weather Service Office. Near The
Coast...The Surge Will Be Accompanied By Large And Dangerous Waves.

Tornadoes...Isolated Tornadoes Are Possible Over Central And
Southern Florida Through Monday.

Surf...Dangerous Surf And Rip Current Conditions Will Continue To
Affect The Northwestern Bahamas...The Florida Peninsula And The
Florida Keys During The Next Day Or So. Please Consult Products
From Your Local Weather Office For More Information.

Next Advisory
-------------
Next Intermediate Advisory...200 Am Edt.
Next Complete Advisory...500 Am Edt.

Forecaster Brown/Blake
____________________________________________________

Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 24
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1100 Pm Edt Sun Aug 26 2012

Satellite Imagery Has Shown An Increase In The Area Of Cold Cloud
Tops Near The Center Of Isaac. However...There Has Not Been Any
Significant Change In Organization In Radar Data From Key West
This Evening.

In Fact...The Aircraft Fixes Have Been Near The Southeastern Edge Of The Convective Cluster Seen In Both Satellite And Radar Imagery. An Earlier Ship Observation And Sfmr Measurements Of 50-55 Kt Supported Increasing The Intensity To 55 Kt On The Intermediate Advisory.

Since That Time...The Aircraft Has Not Found Any Stronger Winds So The Initial Wind Speed Remains Unchanged.

The Large Scale Environmental Factors...Warm Waters...And A Conducive Upper-Air Pattern Favor Strengthening During The Next Couple Of Days.

However...The Lack Of An Inner Core And Large Wind Field Could Continue To Be Impeding Factors For Significant Strengthening In The Short Term.

The Nhc Intensity Forecast Shows A Gradual Increase In Wind Speed During The Next 12 Hours Or So...Followed By More Steady Strengthening. The Official Forecast Is Close To The Ships/Lgem Guidance And The Intensity Consensus.

Aircraft And Radar Center Fixes Indicate That Isaac Jogged Westward
And Slowed Down This Evening.

However...The Longer Term Motion Is 285/12 Kt. The Models Show Isaac Turning Toward The Northwest Into A Break In The Subtropical Ridge. Although The Models Agree On This Turn...There Is An Unusually Large Spread In The Track Guidance After 24 Hours.

The Spread Of Landfall Locations Along The Northern Gulf Coast Ranges From The Texas/Louisiana Border Eastward To The Alabama/Florida Border With The Hwrf...Gfdl...And Gfs Near The
Western Edge And The Ukmet And Ecmwf Along The Eastern Edge Of The Envelope.

Overall...The Consensus Has Shifted A Little Westward And The Official Forecast As Been Moved In That Direction. The Nhc Forecast Is Between The Ecmwf And Gfs Ensemble Means And Near The Hfip Multi-Model Consensus. Because Of The Very Large Spread In
The Guidance...There Continues To Be Greater Than Usual Track
Forecast Uncertainty.

Throughout The Period...It Is Important Not To Focus On The Exact
Forecast Track Due To Forecast Uncertainties And The Fact That
Significant Hazards Extend Well Away From The Center.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 27/0300z 24.2n 82.9w 55 Kt 65 Mph
12h 27/1200z 25.2n 84.8w 60 Kt 70 Mph
24h 28/0000z 26.5n 86.7w 70 Kt 80 Mph
36h 28/1200z 27.9n 88.3w 80 Kt 90 Mph
48h 29/0000z 28.9n 89.3w 85 Kt 100 Mph
72h 30/0000z 30.6n 90.3w 70 Kt 80 Mph...Inland
96h 31/0000z 33.0n 91.0w 30 Kt 35 Mph...Inland
120h 01/0000z 36.0n 91.0w 20 Kt 25 Mph...Inland

Forecaster Brown