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New Tropical Storm Fernand Already Making Landfall in Mexico

...Fernand Continues To Strengthen...
...Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Lashing Veracruz Harbor...

Summary Of 1000 Pm Cdt...0300 Utc...Information
-----------------------------------------------
Location...19.3n 96.2w
About 5 Mi...10 Km N Of Veracruz Mexico
About 140 Mi...225 Km Se Of Tuxpan Mexico
Maximum Sustained Winds...50 Mph...85 Km/H
Present Movement...W Or 280 Degrees At 9 Mph...15 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...1001 Mb...29.56 Inches

Watches And Warnings
--------------------
Changes With This Advisory...

The Government Of Mexico Has Discontinued The Tropical Storm Warning For The Gulf Coast Of Mexico North Of Barra De Nautla.

Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For...
* Gulf Coast Of Mexico From Veracruz Northward To Barra De Nautla

A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are
Expected Somewhere Within The Warning Area...In This Case Within The Next 6 Hours.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...Please Monitor
Products Issued By Your National Meteorological Service.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 1000 Pm Cdt...0300 Utc...The Center Of Tropical Storm Fernand Was Located Near Latitude 19.3 North...Longitude 96.2 West.

Fernand Is Moving Toward The West Near 9 Mph...15 Km/H.

A Westward To West-Northwestward Motion With Some Decrease In Forward Speed Is Expected Over The Next Day Or So. On The Forecast Track...The Center Should Move Across The Veracruz Metropolitan Area Tonight...And Move Inland Over Mexico By Early Monday Morning.

Reports From An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft And
Observing Stations In Veracruz Mexico Indicate That Maximum
Sustained Winds Have Increased To Near 50 Mph...85 Km/H...With
Higher Gusts. Some Additional Strengthening Is Possible Before
Fernand Makes Landfall Along The Gulf Coast Of Mexico Early Monday
Morning. Weakening Will Begin After The Center Moves Inland.

Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 35 Miles...55 Km
From The Center. Two Mexican Coastal Weather Observing Sites In
Veracruz Harbor Recently Reported Sustained Winds Of At Least 50
Mph...85 Km/H With Gusts Up To 72 Mph...117 Km/H.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure...Based On Nearby Surface Observations...Is 1001 Mb...29.56 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
Rainfall...Tropical Storm Fernand Is Expected To Produce 4 To 8
Inches Of Rain Over Veracruz...Hidalgo...Northern Puebla...Southern
Tamaulipas...And Eastern San Luis Potosi Mexico...With Isolated
Maximum Amounts Near 12 Inches Possible. These Rains Could Cause Life-Threatening Flash Floods And Mud Slides.

Wind...Tropical Storm Conditions Are Spreading Over The Coastal
Areas Of The Mexican State Of Veracruz.
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Tropical Storm Fernand Discussion Number 3
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1000 Pm Cdt Sun Aug 25 2013

An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft Found 850 Mb
Flight-Level Winds Of 52 Kt On Its Outbound Leg In The Northwest
Quadrant...And Mexican Coastal Observing Stations Sacv4 And Verv4
In Veracruz Harbor Have Reported 10-Meter Sustained Winds Of 45 Kt
And 44 Kt With Gusts To 60 Kt And 63 Kt...Respectively...During The
Past Couple Of Hours.

Based On That Wind Data...The Intensity Of Fernand Has Been Increased To 45 Kt...Which Could Be A Little Conservative.

Conditions Will Be Favorable For Some Additional Strengthening Until Fernand Makes Landfall Along The Coast Of Mexico In The State Of Veracruz In A Few Hours...Which May Be Ongoing Based On The Aforementioned Surface Reports And A Recent Burst Of Strong Convection Containing A Large Area Of Cloud Tops Colder Than -80c In The Southwestern Quadrant.

The Initial Motion Estimate Remains 280/08 Kt...And Is Based Mainly
On Model Guidance. A Strong Deep-Layer Ridge To The North Of
Fernand Should Keep The Cyclone Moving Generally Westward For The Next 12 Hours Or So...After Which A Gradual Turn Toward The
West-Northwest Could Occur As The Remnant Low Moves Parallel To
Rather Than Over The High Terrain Of The Sierra Madre Oriental
Mountain Range.

On The Forecast Track...Fernand Should Move Across The Veracruz Metropolitan Area Tonight And Be Inland By 0600 Utc.

Heavy Rains Are Expected To Occur Over The Mexican States Of
Veracruz And Adjacent Areas During The Next Couple Of Days In
Association With Fernand. These Rains Could Trigger Significant
Flooding And Mud Slides Over Portions Of South-Central Mexico.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 26/0300z 19.3n 96.2w 45 Kt 50 Mph
12h 26/1200z 19.7n 97.3w 35 Kt 40 Mph...Inland
24h 27/0000z 20.3n 98.5w 20 Kt 25 Mph...Dissipating Inland
36h 27/1200z 21.0n 99.8w 20 Kt 25 Mph...Dissipating Inland
48h 28/0000z...Dissipated Inland

Forecaster Stewart


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