Hurricane Sandy Advisory Number 23
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1100 Pm Edt Sat Oct 27 2012

Summary Of 1100 Pm Edt...0300 Utc...Information
-----------------------------------------------
Location...30.9n 74.3w
About 360 Mi...580 Km Ese Of Charleston South Carolina
About 305 Mi...490 Km Sse Of Cape Hatteras North Carolina
Maximum Sustained Winds...75 Mph...120 Km/H
Present Movement...Ne Or 40 Degrees At 14 Mph...22 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...960 Mb...28.35 Inches

Watches And Warnings
--------------------
Changes With This Advisory...

The Tropical Storm Watch Has Been Discontinued For The South
Carolina Coast.

Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For...
* South Santee River South Carolina To Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico And Albemarle Sounds
* Bermuda

In Addition...High Wind Warnings Are In Effect For Portions Of
Southeastern Virginia. High Wind Watches And Warnings...Along With Other Watches And Warnings Are In Effect For Much Of The
Mid-Atlantic States And Southern New England. See Statements From
Local National Weather Service Forecast Offices.

Interests Throughout The Mid-Atlantic States And New England Should Monitor The Progress Of Sandy.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area In The United States... Including Possible Inland Watches And Warnings...Please Monitor Products Issued By Your Local National Weather Service Forecast Office. For Storm Information Specific To Your Area Outside The United States...Please Monitor Products Issued By Your National
Meteorological Service.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 1100 Pm Edt...0300 Utc...The Center Of Hurricane Sandy Was
Located Near Latitude 30.9 North...Longitude 74.3 West.

Sandy Is Moving Toward The Northeast Near 14 Mph...22 Km/H...And This General Motion Is Forecast To Continue Through Sunday.

A Turn Toward The North Is Forecast On Sunday Night...Followed By A Turn Toward The North-Northwest On Monday.

On The Forecast Track The Center Of Sandy Will Move Parallel To The Southeast Coast Of The United States Through The Weekend... And Approach The Coast Of The Mid-Atlantic States Monday Night.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 75 Mph...120 Km/H...With Higher
Gusts.

While Little Change In Strength Is Forecast During The Next Couple Of Days...Sandy Is Expected To Remain A Large And Powerful
Cyclone.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 105 Miles...165 Km...From The Center...And Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 520 Miles...835 Km. Noaa Buoy 41036...Located In Onslow Bay Near The North Carolina Coast...Recently Reported Sustained Winds Of 45 Mph...73 Km/H...And A Wind Gust Of 60 Mph...97 Km/H.

The Minimum Central Pressure Based On Noaa And Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Reports Is 960 Mb...28.35 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
Wind...Tropical Storm Conditions Are Spreading Across The Coast Of
North Carolina In The Tropical Storm Warning Area...And These
Should Continue Through Sunday.

Gale Force Winds Are Expected To Arrive Along Portions Of The Mid-Atlantic Coast By Sunday And Reach Long Island And Southern New England By Monday Morning.

Winds To Near Hurricane Force Could Reach The Mid-Atlantic States ...Including Long Island...By Late Monday.

Storm Surge...The Combination Of A Dangerous Storm Surge And The Tide Will Cause Normally Dry Areas Near The Coast To Be Flooded By Rising Waters. The Water Could Reach The Following Depths Above Ground If The Peak Surge Occurs At The Time Of High Tide...

Nc South Of Surf City...1 To 3 Ft
Nc North Of Surf City Including Pamlico/Albermarle Snds...3 To 5 Ft
Se Va And Delmarva Including Lower Chesapeake Bay...2 To 4 Ft
Upper And Middle Chesapeake Bay...1 To 2 Ft

Ocean City Md To The Ct/Ri Border...4 To 8 Ft
Long Island Sound...Raritan Bay...And Delaware Bay...4 To 8 Ft

Surge-Related Flooding Depends On The Relative Timing Of The Surge And The Tidal Cycle...And Can Vary Greatly Over Short Distances.

Given The Large Wind Field Associated With Sandy...Elevated Water
Levels Could Span Multiple Tide Cycles Resulting In Repeated And
Extended Periods Of Coastal And Bayside Flooding.

In Addition...Elevated Waters Could Occur Far Removed From The Center Of Sandy. Furthermore...These Conditions Will Occur Regardless Of Whether Sandy Is A Tropical Or Post-Tropical Cyclone. For Information Specific To Your Area...Please See Products Issued By Your Local National Weather Service Office.

Rainfall...Rainfall Totals Of 3 To 6 Inches Are Expected Over Far
Eastern North Carolina...With Isolated Maximum Totals Of 8 Inches
Possible. Rainfall Amounts Of 4 To 8 Inches Are Expected Over
Portions Of The Mid-Atlantic States...Including The Delmarva
Peninsula...With Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 12 Inches Possible.
Rainfall Amounts Of 1 To 3 Inches With Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 5 Inches Are Possible Across Parts Of Southern New York Into New
England.

Surf...Dangerous Surf Conditions Will Continue From Florida Through
The Mid-Atlantic For The Next Couple Of Days And Spread Into The
Northeastern States On Sunday.

Next Advisory
-------------
Next Intermediate Advisory...200 Am Edt.
Next Complete Advisory...500 Am Edt.

Forecaster Beven
_____________________________________________________

Hurricane Sandy Discussion Number 23
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1100 Pm Edt Sat Oct 27 2012

Satellite Imagery Shows That The Central Convection Associated With
Sandy Has Increased During The Evening.

In Addition...Data From Air Force Reserve And Noaa Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Indicate That The Circulation At 10000-12000 Ft Is Stronger Than 24 Hours Ago...And There Are Indications Of An Inner Wind Maximum Near The Convection.

However...This Has Not Yet Resulted In Any Intensification...And The
Initial Intensity Remains Near 65 Kt. The Aircraft-Reported Pressure Is About 960 Mb.

Sandy Has Moved A Little To The Right During The Past Several
Hours...With An Initial Motion Of 040/12. Other Than That...There
Is No Change To The Track Forecast Philosophy.

Sandy Is Expected To Move Generally Northeastward For The Next 24 Hours Or So...Steered By A Deep-Layer Trough Moving Into The Eastern United States.

After That...A Developing Mid/Upper-Level Ridge Over Northeastern Canada And Interaction With The U. S. Trough Should Cause The Cyclone To Turn Toward The North...Northwest...And Eventually West-Northwest.

This Motion Should Bring The Center Inland Over The Mid-Atlantic Region Between 48-72 Hours.

After Landfall...Sandy Is Expected To Merge With The U. S. Trough To Form A Large Deep-Layer Low Pressure Area...With The Resulting System Moving Northward And Northeastward After 72 Hours.

As Noted In The Previous Advisory...It Is Still Too Soon To Focus On The Exact Track...Both Because Of Forecast Uncertainty And Because The Impacts Are Going To Cover Such A Large Area Away From The Center.

Sandy Remains In An Area Of Strong Upper-Level Divergence Caused By A Trough To Its Southwest. This Is Likely Helping To Sustain The Hurricane Despite Significant Vertical Wind Shear.

While The Intensity Forecast Shows Little Change In Strength For 36 Hours... The Ships Model And The Dynamical Models Suggest The Possibility The Shear Could Decrease During This Time...And If That Happens Sandy Could Strengthen A Little As A Tropical Cyclone.

After 36 Hours...The Dynamical Models All Forecast That Interaction With The U. S. Trough Should Cause Some Intensification Along With
Extratropical Transition...Which Is Forecast To Be Complete By 48
Hours.

It Should Be Noted That This Transition Will Have Little Effect On The Size And Impacts Of This Large And Vigorous System.

After Landfall...The Forecast Again Calls For The Cyclone To Steadily Weaken.

As Also Noted In The Previous Advisory...In Order To Avoid The Risk
Of A Highly Disruptive Change From Tropical To Non-Tropical
Warnings When Sandy Becomes Post-Tropical...The Wind Hazard North Of The Tropical Storm Warning Area Will Continue To Be Conveyed Through High Wind Watches And Warnings Issued By Local National Weather Service Offices.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 28/0300z 30.9n 74.3w 65 Kt 75 Mph
12h 28/1200z 32.2n 72.9w 65 Kt 75 Mph
24h 29/0000z 34.1n 71.4w 65 Kt 75 Mph
36h 29/1200z 36.3n 71.1w 65 Kt 75 Mph
48h 30/0000z 38.7n 72.4w 70 Kt 80 Mph...Post-Trop/Extratrop
72h 31/0000z 40.5n 77.0w 45 Kt 50 Mph...Post-Trop/Extratrop
96h 01/0000z 43.5n 77.0w 30 Kt 35 Mph...Post-Trop/Extratrop
120h 02/0000z 47.5n 75.0w 25 Kt 30 Mph...Post-Trop/Extratrop

Forecaster Beven