Hurricane Sandy Advisory Number 22
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
500 Pm Edt Sat Oct 27 2012

Summary Of 500 Pm Edt...2100 Utc...Information
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Location...30.2n 75.2w
About 335 Mi...540 Km Ese Of Charleston South Carolina
About 345 Mi...555 Km S Of Cape Hatteras North Carolina
Maximum Sustained Winds...75 Mph...120 Km/H
Present Movement...Ne Or 35 Degrees At 13 Mph...20 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...961 Mb...28.38 Inches

Watches And Warnings
--------------------
Changes With This Advisory...

The Bermuda Weather Service Has Replaced The Tropical Storm
Watch With A Tropical Storm Warning For Bermuda.

The Government Of The Bahamas Has Discontinued All Tropical
Storm Warnings.

Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For...
* South Santee River South Carolina To Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico And Albemarle Sounds
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch Is In Effect For...
* Savannah River To South Santee River

In Addition...High Wind Warnings Are In Effect For Portions Of
Southeastern Virginia. High Wind Watches Are In Effect For Much
Of The Mid-Atlantic States And Southern New England. See Statements From Local National Weather Service Forecast Offices.

Interests Throughout The Mid-Atlantic States And New England Should Monitor The Progress Of Sandy.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area In The United
States...Including Possible Inland Watches And Warnings...Please
Monitor Products Issued By Your Local National Weather Service
Forecast Office. For Storm Information Specific To Your Area Outside
The United States...Please Monitor Products Issued By Your National
Meteorological Service.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 500 Pm Edt...2100 Utc...The Center Of Hurricane Sandy Was Located Near Latitude 30.2 North...Longitude 75.2 West.

Sandy Is Moving Toward The Northeast Near 13 Mph...20 Km/H...And This General Motion Is Forecast To Continue Through Sunday.

A Turn Toward The North Is Forecast Sunday Night...Followed By A Turn Toward The North-Northwest On Monday. On The Forecast Track The Center Of Sandy Will Move Parallel To The Southeast Coast Of The United States Through The Weekend...And Approach The Coast Of The Mid-Atlantic States Late Monday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Remain Near 75 Mph...120 Km/H...With Higher Gusts.

Little Change In Strength Is Forecast During The Next Couple Of Days.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 105 Miles...165 Km...From The Center...And Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 520 Miles...835 Km. Noaa Buoy 41013...Located About 35 Miles...South-Southeast Of Cape Lookout North Carolina Recently Reported A Sustained Wind Of 47 Mph...76 Km/H...And A Wind Gust Of 58 Mph...94 Km/H.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 961 Mb...28.38 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
Wind...Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected To Reach The Tropical Storm Warning Area In The Carolinas Within The Next Few Hours...And Spread Northward Tonight And Sunday. Tropical
Storm Conditions Are Possible In The Watch Areas Through Tonight.

Gale Force Winds Are Expected To Arrive Along Portions Of The
Mid-Atlantic Coast By Late Sunday Or Sunday Night And Reach Long
Island And Southern New England By Monday Morning.

Winds To Near Hurricane Force Could Reach The Mid-Atlantic States...Including Long Island...By Late Monday.

Storm Surge...The Combination Of A Dangerous Storm Surge And The Tide Will Cause Normally Dry Areas Near The Coast To Be Flooded By Rising Waters. The Water Could Reach The Following Depths Above Ground If The Peak Surge Occurs At The Time Of High Tide...

Fl East Coast North Of Cape Canaveral...1 To 2 Ft
Nc South Of Surf City...1 To 3 Ft
Nc North Of Surf City Including Pamlico/Albermarle Snds...3 To 5 Ft
Se Va And Delmarva Including Lower Chesapeake Bay...2 To 4 Ft
Upper And Middle Chesapeake Bay...1 To 2 Ft
Ocean City Md To The Ct/Ri Border...4 To 8 Ft
Long Island Sound...Raritan Bay...And Delaware Bay...4 To 8 Ft

Surge-Related Flooding Depends On The Relative Timing Of The Surge And The Tidal Cycle...And Can Vary Greatly Over Short Distances.

Given The Large Wind Field Associated With Sandy...Elevated Water
Levels Could Span Multiple Tide Cycles Resulting In Repeated And
Extended Periods Of Coastal And Bayside Flooding. In Addition...
Elevated Waters Could Occur Far Removed From The Center Of Sandy.

Furthermore...These Conditions Will Occur Regardless Of Whether
Sandy Is A Tropical Or Post-Tropical Cyclone. For Information
Specific To Your Area...Please See Products Issued By Your Local
National Weather Service Office.

Rainfall...Rainfall Totals Of 3 To 6 Inches Are Expected Over Far
Eastern North Carolina...With Isolated Maximum Totals Of 8 Inches
Possible. Rainfall Amounts Of 4 To 8 Inches Are Expected Over
Portions Of The Mid-Atlantic States...Including The Delmarva
Peninsula...With Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 12 Inches Possible.
Rainfall Amounts Of 1 To 3 Inches With Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 5 Inches Are Possible Across Parts Of Southern New York Into New
England.

Surf...Dangerous Surf Conditions Will Continue From Florida Through
The Carolinas For The Next Couple Of Days And Spread Into The Mid-
Atlantic And Northeastern States By Sunday.

Next Advisory
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Next Intermediate Advisory...800 Pm Edt.
Next Complete Advisory...1100 Pm Edt.

Forecaster Brown
_____________________________________________________

Hurricane Sandy Discussion Number 22
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
500 Pm Edt Sat Oct 27 2012

First A Note On The Nws Warning Strategy For Sandy.

In Order To Avoid The Risk Of A Highly Disruptive Change From Tropical To Non-Tropical Warnings When Sandy Becomes Post-Tropical...The Wind Hazard North Of The Tropical Storm Warning Area Will Continue To Be Conveyed Through High Wind Watches And Warnings Warnings Issued By Local National Weather Service Offices.

Satellite Imagery Shows That Dry Mid-Level Air Has Wrapped Around
The Western And Southwestern Portions Of The Circulation...Which May Have Caused The Recent Weakening Of The Inner-Core Convection. The Air Force Aircraft Made Its Final Pass Through Sandy Around 1800 Utc And Reported A Minimum Pressure Of Around 961 Mb. Wind Data From The Aircraft And A Recent Dropsonde From The Noaa G-Iv Aircraft Conducting A Surveillance Mission Around Sandy Support Maintaining The Initial Intensity Of 65 Kt.

There Has Been No Change To The Track Or Intensity Forecast
Reasoning.

Sandy Is Likely To Remain At Or Near Hurricane Strength During The Next Day Or So. After That Time...The Cyclone Will Interact With A Strong Shortwave Trough And Associated Cold Front Moving Into The Eastern United States.

As This Occurs...The Global Models Indicate That The Cyclone Will Strengthen Due To Baroclinic Processes...And The Official Forecast Calls For Some Increase In Intensity In A Couple Of Days.

By 48 Hours...The Gfs And Ecmwf Models Show Colder Air Wrapping Around The South Portion Of The Circulation And Sandy Is Likely To Have Completed Its Transformation To A Vigorous Extratropical Cyclone At That Time. After Landfall...The Cyclone Is Forecast To Steadily Weaken.

The Gfs And Ecmwf Models Are In Better Agreement This Afternoon...
With The Ecmwf A Little North Of Its Previous Track.

Sandy Is Forecast To Move Northeastward During The Next 24 Hours...Then Turn Northward Ahead Of The Approaching Mid-Latitude Trough.

The Cyclone Should Turn Northwestward...Then Westward As It Rotates Around The Eastern Side Of The Deepening Trough. Once Again...Drawing A Straight Line Between The 48- And 72-Hour Forecast Points Does Not Quite Depict How Close The Center Is Expected To Come To Long Island.

Having Said That...It Is Still Too Soon To Focus On The Exact Track ...Both Because Of Forecast Uncertainty And Because The Impacts Are Going To Cover Such A Large Area Away From The Center.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 27/2100z 30.2n 75.2w 65 Kt 75 Mph
12h 28/0600z 31.5n 73.8w 65 Kt 75 Mph
24h 28/1800z 33.4n 72.1w 65 Kt 75 Mph
36h 29/0600z 35.4n 71.1w 65 Kt 75 Mph
48h 29/1800z 37.9n 72.0w 70 Kt 80 Mph...Post-Trop/Extratrop
72h 30/1800z 40.0n 77.0w 50 Kt 60 Mph...Post-Trop/Extratrop
96h 31/1800z 42.5n 76.5w 35 Kt 40 Mph...Post-Trop/Extratrop
120h 01/1800z 45.5n 74.5w 30 Kt 35 Mph...Post-Trop/Extratrop

Forecaster Brown