May 23, 2013
One last Isaac update early Tuesday morning…
Isaac is still experiencing dry air intrusion and may have trouble intensifying to any significant degree before a Louisiana landfall later today (Tuesday).
However, the possibly more interesting news is Isaac may be moving yet again more to the west (and possibly slowing). Isaac has already done several such westward movements since early Sunday.
The official landfall area is still near the mouth of the Mississippi River late Tuesday afternoon (the 4am cdt Isaac update is at least an hour away).
Nevertheless, Isaac may possibly make landfall in an area that the best model for Isaac so far (GFS) targeted back on Sunday – farther westward on the Louisiana coast.
If that happens, the possibility increases that Isaac then moves slowly along the Louisiana coast before moving inland into central or southwestern Louisiana. That would be a huge sigh of relief for the New Orleans area.
The last few hours of satellite imagery seem to signal that, but as I said it is too early to make that call.
The 4am Isaac update should be interesting with regards to intensity (pressure is very low for just a tropical storm) and to a possible path change farther westward.
You will know before me – I’m going to sleep.
Meanwhile, back at the WTVY-TV ranch…Isaac’s effects on the WTVY-TV area continue to diminish…expectant rainfall rates have dropped to as low as 1 to 3 inches through Thursday (with a few areas possibly getting more). If Isaac does go farther westward, then the rainfall potential drops even more.
About the only way Isaac brings more rain than expected is if it goes more northward after landfall in southeast Louisiana, then turns to the northeast fairly quickly – none of which looks likely to occur.
The winds should not exceed 20 mph near Dothan or eastward, while along the nearby Florida panhandle coast, gusts in the 30s may occur – and seas will still be rough for a few days with a high risk of rip currents.
Good morning, or night…
Oscar Fann
