Intensifying Hurricane Ingrid Making West Turn to Mexico Monday Landfall

Hurricane Ingrid Advisory Number 11
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1000 Pm Cdt Sat Sep 14 2013

Summary Of 1000 Pm Cdt...0300 Utc...Information
Location...22.0n 95.0w
About 185 Mi...300 Km E Of Tampico Mexico
About 215 Mi...350 Km Se Of La Pesca Mexico
Maximum Sustained Winds...85 Mph...140 Km/H
Present Movement...Nnw Or 335 Degrees At 7 Mph...11 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...986 Mb...29.12 Inches

Watches And Warnings
Changes With This Advisory...

The Government Of Mexico Has Issued A Hurricane Watch From North Of La Pesca To Bahia Algodones...And Has Extended The Tropical Storm Warning Northward From Bahia Algodones To Rio San Fernando.

Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Hurricane Warning Is In Effect For...
* Cabo Rojo To La Pesca

A Hurricane Watch Is In Effect For...
* North Of La Pesca To Bahia Algodones

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For...
* North Of La Pesca To Rio San Fernando
* South Of Cabo Rojo To Tuxpan

A Hurricane Warning Means That Hurricane Conditions Are Expected
Somewhere Within The Warning Area...In This Case Within 36 Hours.
Preparations To Protect Life And Property Should Be Rushed To

A Hurricane Watch Means That Hurricane Conditions Are Possible
Within The Watch Area...In This Case Within 36 Hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are
Expected Somewhere Within The Warning Area Within 36 Hours.

Interests Elsewhere Along The Remainder Of The Gulf Coast Of Eastern Mexico Should Monitor The Progress Of Ingrid.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...Please Monitor
Products Issued By Your National Meteorological Service.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
At 1000 Pm Cdt...0300 Utc...The Center Of Hurricane Ingrid Was
Located Near Latitude 22.0 North...Longitude 95.0 West.

Ingrid Is Moving Toward The North-Northwest Near 7 Mph...11 Km/H.

A Turn Toward The Northwest Is Expected By Sunday Morning... Followed By A Turn Toward The West By Early Monday.

On The Forecast Track... Ingrid Should Reach The Coast Of Mexico Within The Hurricane Warning Area Early Monday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Have Increased To Near 85 Mph...140 Km/H... With Higher Gusts.

Some Additional Strengthening Is Forecast Before Landfall.

Hurricane-Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 35 Miles...55 Km...From The Center...And Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 90 Miles...150 Km. Noaa Buoy 42055 Located About 70 Miles...110 Km...Northeast Of The Center Of Ingrid Recently Reported A Sustained Wind Of 42 Mph...68 Km/H...And A Wind Gust Of 49 Mph...79 Km/H.

The Latest Minimum Central Pressure Reported By An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Was 986 Mb...29.12 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
Rainfall...Ingrid Is Expected To Produce 10 To 15 Inches Of Rain
Over A Large Part Of Eastern Mexico...With Isolated Amounts Of 25
Inches Possible...Especially In Areas Of Mountainous Terrain. These
Rains Are Likely To Result In Life-Threatening Flash Floods And Mud

Wind...Hurricane Conditions Are Expected To Reach The Hurricane
Warning Area Early Monday...With Tropical Storm Conditions Expected
By Late Sunday. Hurricane Conditions Are Possible In The Hurricane
Watch Area Early Monday.

Storm Surge...A Dangerous Storm Surge Will Raise Water Levels By As Much As 3 To 5 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels Along The Immediate Coast Near And To The North Of Where The Center Of Ingrid Makes Landfall.

Near The Coast...The Surge Will Be Accompanied By Large And Destructive Waves.
Hurricane Ingrid Discussion Number 11
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1000 Pm Cdt Sat Sep 14 2013

Aircraft Investigating Ingrid This Evening Indicate That The Hurricane Has Strengthened.

The Noaa P-3 Reported Several Sfmr Winds In The 70-75 Kt Range After Correcting For The Influence Of Rain...And Data From Two Dropsondes Northeast Of The Center From The Noaa Aircraft Also Suggest Surface Winds In The 70-75 Kt Range.

Based On These Data...The Initial Intensity Is Set To 75 Kt For This Advisory. The Central Pressure Of 986 Mb Is Based On A Dropsonde From An Air Force Hurricane Hunter Aircraft...And That Value Has Risen A Bit Since 00z.

Overall The Cloud Pattern Has Improved On Satellite Imagery...With An Expanding Cdo Feature. Microwave Imagery Showed The Formation Of A Partial Eyewall...Which Was Also Noted By Personnel On The Noaa Aircraft.

Ingrid Has Intensified Despite Persistent Moderate Shear...And
Conditions Appear Favorable For Some Additional Strengthening Before Landfall In About 36 Hours.

The New Nhc Forecast Is A Littler Higher Than The Previous One And Is Closest To The Lgem Model.

Quick Weakening Is Expected After Landfall...And The Low-Level Circulation Should Dissipate Shortly After 72 Hours.

Aircraft Fixes Suggest That Ingrid Is Moving More Toward The North-
Northwest...With An Initial Motion Of 335/07.

A Turn Toward The West-Northwest And West Is Expected In The Next 24 To 36 Hours As A Mid-Level Ridge Builds Over The Southeastern United States.

Overall The Track Guidance Is A Little Faster And Farther North This
Cycle...With The Latest Gfs Trending Toward The Middle Of The
Guidance Envelope With A Faster Motion. The Nhc Track Has Been
Adjusted Northward In This Package...But Remains South Of The
Consensus And On The South Side Of The Guidance Envelope Until
Landfall Given The More Westerly Component Of The Initial Motion.

This Adjustment Puts The Nhc Forecast About A Half A Degree North
Of The Previous One By The Time Of Landfall...And Further
Adjustments To The Track May Be Needed Tonight And Sunday.

After Landfall...The Official Forecast Continues To Show A Southward Dip In The Track Until Dissipation.

Given The Northward Shift In The Track Forecast...The Government Of
Mexico Has Issued A Hurricane Watch From La Pesca To Bahia
Algodones...And Has Extended The Tropical Storm Warning North To
Rio San Fernando.

In Addition To The Wind And Storm Surge Threats...The Moist Flow
Resulting From The Combination Of Ingrid And Tropical Storm Manuel In The Eastern Pacific Will Continue To Produce Torrential Rains.

Life-Threatening Flooding Over Eastern Mexico Will Remain A
Significant Hazard Over The Next Couple Of Days.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 15/0300z 22.0n 95.0w 75 Kt 85 Mph
12h 15/1200z 22.4n 95.4w 80 Kt 90 Mph
24h 16/0000z 23.0n 96.4w 85 Kt 100 Mph
36h 16/1200z 23.0n 97.8w 85 Kt 100 Mph...Inland
48h 17/0000z 22.7n 98.7w 50 Kt 60 Mph...Inland
72h 18/0000z 22.0n 99.5w 30 Kt 35 Mph...Post-Trop/Remnt Low
96h 19/0000z...Dissipated

Forecaster Brennan