Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 18
National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1100 Pm Edt Sun Aug 05 2012

Summary Of 1100 Pm Edt...0300 Utc...Information
-----------------------------------------------
Location...15.0n 79.7w
About 235 Mi...375 Km E Of Cabo Gracias A Dios On Nic/Hon Border
About 470 Mi...755 Km E Of Isla Roatan Honduras
Maximum Sustained Winds...50 Mph...85 Km/H
Present Movement...W Or 270 Degrees At 15 Mph...24 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...1003 Mb...29.62 Inches

Watches And Warnings
--------------------
Changes With This Advisory...

None.

Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For...
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Watch Is In Effect For...
* Grand Cayman
* The Coast Of Honduras From The Honduras/Nicaragua Border Westward To Punta Castilla

A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are
Expected Somewhere Within The Warning Area...In This Case Within
12 Hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are
Possible Within The Watch Area...In This Case Within 24 To 48 Hours.

Interests In Belize And The Yucatan Peninsula Of Mexico Should
Monitor The Progress Of Ernesto.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...Please Monitor
Products Issued By Your National Meteorological Service.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 1100 Pm Edt...0300 Utc...The Center Of Tropical Storm Ernesto Was Located Near Latitude 15.0 North...Longitude 79.7 West.

Ernesto Is Moving Slower Toward The West At Near 15 Mph...24 Km/H.

A Gradual Turn Toward The West-Northwest With A Slight Decrease In Forward Speed Is Expected During The Next 48 Hours.

On The Forecast Track...The Center Of Ernesto Is Expected To Pass Well To The South Of The Cayman Islands Tonight And Early Monday And Move Close To The Northeastern Coast Of Honduras Late Monday And Monday Night.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 50 Mph...85 Km/H...With Higher
Gusts. Some Strengthening Is Forecast As Ernesto Moves Over The
Northwestern Caribbean Sea On Monday And Tuesday.

Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 125 Miles...205 Km From The Center.

The Minimum Central Pressure Recently Reported By An Air Force
Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft Was 1003 Mb...29.62 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
Wind...Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected In Jamaica Through
Tonight And Early Monday Morning.

Tropical Storm Conditions Are Possible In Grand Cayman Tonight And Early Monday...And In The Watch Area Along The Coast Of Honduras By Late Monday.

Rainfall...Rainfall Accumulations Of 2 To 4 Inches...With Isolated
Higher Amounts...Can Be Expected In Jamaica As Ernesto Moves By The Island.

Rainfall Of 1 To 3 Inches Is Expected Across The Cayman Islands.

Next Advisory
-------------
Next Intermediate Advisory...200 Am Edt.
Next Complete Advisory...500 Am Edt.

Forecaster Stewart

______________________________________________

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 18
National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1100 Pm Edt Sun Aug 05 2012

A Burst Of Deep Convection With Cloud Tops Colder Than -85c Has
Developed Over The Previously Exposed Low-Level Circulation Center.

However...Data From An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft
Indicate That This Has Not Yet Translated Into A Strengthening
Trend Despite The Surface Pressure Having Decreased To About 1003 Mb.

The Strongest 850 Mb Flight-Level Wind Reported Was 42 Kt And The Highest Adjusted-Sfmr Surface Wind Has Been Around 44 Kt.

Based On This Information...The Initial Intensity Is Maintained At 45
Kt...Which Could Be Generous.

Ernesto Has Continued To Decelerate And The Initial Motion Estimate
Is Now 270/13 Kt.

The Decoupled Mid- And Upper-Level Vortex Has Displaced The Deep Convection To The South Side Of The Low-Level Vortex...Which Has Resulted In A Slight Jog To The West-Southwest.

However...This Is Expected To Be A Temporary Motion And Ernesto
Should Turn Toward The West-Northwest Within 12-24 Hours...And
Continue That Motion For The Next 48 Hours...After Which A Turn
Toward The West Is Expected.

Otherwise...There Is No Significant Change To The Previous Track Forecast Or Reasoning.

The Official Forecast Track Is Similar To The Previous Advisory Track And Lies Close To The Consensus Models Tcva And Tv15.

The Gfs And Ecmwf Models Have Done A Superb Job In Forecasting The Recent Short-Term Wobble To The West-Southwest Owing To The Northerly Shear Created By The Mid-Level Vortex Being Displaced
More Than 60 Nmi To The East Of The Low-Level Center.

Those Models Are Also Forecasting The Low-Level And Mid-/ Upper-Level Circulations To Re-Couple And Become Vertically Aligned Again In About 24 Hours Or So...Which Should Allow For More Significant Strengthening To Occur.

Until That Time...However...Ernesto Is Expected To Strengthen Little.

The Official Intensity Forecast Is Similar To The Previous Advisory And Follows The Trend Of The Intensity Consensus Model Iv15 Until Landfall In About 48 Hours...And Follows The Decay-Ships Model After That.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 06/0300z 15.0n 79.7w 45 Kt 50 Mph
12h 06/1200z 15.3n 81.3w 50 Kt 60 Mph
24h 07/0000z 16.1n 83.3w 55 Kt 65 Mph
36h 07/1200z 17.1n 85.1w 60 Kt 70 Mph
48h 08/0000z 17.9n 87.5w 65 Kt 75 Mph
72h 09/0000z 19.0n 91.4w 35 Kt 40 Mph...Inland
96h 10/0000z 20.0n 95.2w 50 Kt 60 Mph...Over Water
120h 11/0000z 20.5n 98.5w 55 Kt 65 Mph...Inland

Forecaster Stewart