Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 17
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
500 Pm Edt Sun Aug 05 2012

Summary Of 500 Pm Edt...2100 Utc...Information
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Location...15.3n 78.6w
About 220 Mi...355 Km Ssw Of Kingston Jamaica
About 305 Mi...495 Km E Of Cabo Gracias A Dios On Nic/Hon Border
Maximum Sustained Winds...50 Mph...85 Km/H
Present Movement...W Or 280 Degrees At 20 Mph...32 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...1006 Mb...29.71 Inches

Watches And Warnings
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Changes With This Advisory...

None.

Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For...
* Jamaica

A Tropical Storm Watch Is In Effect For...
* Grand Cayman
* The Coast Of Honduras From The Honduras/Nicaragua Border Westward To Punta Castilla

A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are
Expected Somewhere Within The Warning Area...In This Case Within 12 Hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are
Possible Within The Watch Area...In This Case Within 24 To 48 Hours.

Interests In Belize And The Yucatan Peninsula Of Mexico Should
Monitor The Progress Of Ernesto.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...Please Monitor
Products Issued By Your National Meteorological Service.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
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At 500 Pm Edt...2100 Utc...The Center Of Tropical Storm Ernesto Was
Located Near Latitude 15.3 North...Longitude 78.6 West.

Ernesto Is Moving Toward The West Near 20 Mph...32 Km/H...And A Gradual Turn Toward The West-Northwest With A Further Decrease In Forward Speed Is Expected During The Next 48 Hours.

On The Forecast Track...The Center Of Ernesto Is Expected To Pass Well South Of The Cayman Islands Tonight And Early Monday And Move Just North Of The Northeastern Coast Of Honduras Late Monday And Monday Night.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 50 Mph...85 Km/H...With Higher
Gusts.

Some Strengthening Is Forecast As Ernesto Moves Over The
Western Caribbean Sea On Monday And Tuesday.

Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 125 Miles...205 Km From The Center.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 1006 Mb...29.71 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
Wind...Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected In Jamaica Through
This Evening.

Tropical Storm Conditions Are Possible In Grand Cayman Tonight And Early Monday...And In The Watch Area Along The Coast Of Honduras By Late Monday.

Rainfall...Rainfall Accumulations Of 2 To 4 Inches...With Isolated
Higher Amounts...Can Be Expected In Jamaica As Ernesto Moves By Well South Of The Island.

Next Advisory
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Forecaster Pasch/Roberts

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Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 17
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
500 Pm Edt Sun Aug 05 2012

Aside From A Small Burst Of Thunderstorms Just East And Southeast Of The Low-Level Center...Most Of The Deep Convection Is In Disorganized Patches Well To The East-Northeast Of The Center.

Dry Air In The Low- To Mid-Levels Has Been Disrupting The Storm... Along With Some South-Southwesterly Vertical Shear.

However...The Shear Appears To Be Abating Recently And...Assuming
That Ernesto Will Be Able To Overcome The Unfavorable
Thermodynamics...Some Strengthening Should Commence Within A Day Or So.

Once Again...The Statistical-Dynamical Lgem/Ships Guidance Shows Significant Strengthening Within The Next 48 Hours. Given The Current Organization And Appearance Of The Storm...This Seems
Dubious. The Official Intensity Forecast Is Close To The Latest
Hfip Intensity Model Consensus.

The Anticipated Deceleration Is Finally Occurring And The Initial
Motion Estimate Is 280/17.

There Is Little Change In The Track Forecast Reasoning From The Previous Advisory Package.

A Mid-Tropospheric Subtropical Ridge To The North Of Ernesto Is
Predicted To Weaken Somewhat As A Trough Dips Over The Eastern
United States During The Next Few Days.

As A Result...The Tropical Cyclone Should Turn Toward The West-Northwest With A Further Reduction In Forward Speed Over The Next Day Or So.

Most Of The Models Are In Agreement That The Ridge Will Not Weaken Enough To Result In Ernesto Turning Toward The Northwest Gulf Coast In The Latter Part Of The Forecast Period.

In Fact...The Gfs And Its Ensemble Mean...As Well As The Latest Ecmwf...Are South Of This Official Track Forecast.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 05/2100z 15.3n 78.6w 45 Kt 50 Mph
12h 06/0600z 15.5n 80.8w 45 Kt 50 Mph
24h 06/1800z 16.0n 82.8w 50 Kt 60 Mph
36h 07/0600z 16.7n 84.7w 55 Kt 65 Mph
48h 07/1800z 17.5n 86.6w 60 Kt 70 Mph
72h 08/1800z 19.0n 90.5w 40 Kt 45 Mph...Inland
96h 09/1800z 20.5n 94.5w 55 Kt 65 Mph
120h 10/1800z 21.5n 97.5w 70 Kt 80 Mph

Forecaster Pasch/Roberts