Hurricane Ernesto Advisory Number 26
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
400 Pm Cdt Tue Aug 07 2012

Summary Of 400 Pm Cdt...2100 Utc...Information
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Location...18.8n 86.2w
About 140 Mi...225 Km E Of Chetumal Mexico
Maximum Sustained Winds...80 Mph...130 Km/H
Present Movement...Wnw Or 300 Degrees At 15 Mph...24 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...983 Mb...29.03 Inches

Watches And Warnings
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Changes With This Advisory...

The Government Of Belize Has Changed The Hurricane Warning To A
Tropical Storm Warning For The Coast Of Belize From South Of Belize
City Southward To The Border Of Guatemala.

The Government Of Honduras Has Discontinued All Watches And Warnings For Honduras.

Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Hurricane Warning Is In Effect For...
* Chetumal To Tulum On The East Coast Of The Yucatan Peninsula
* Cozumel
* Coast Of Belize From Belize City Northward To The Border Of Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For...
* North Of Tulum To Cabo Catoche On The East Coast Of The Yucatan
Peninsula
* South Of Belize City Southward To The Border Of Guatemala
* Celestun Southward And Westward To Chilitepec Along The Gulf Coast Of Mexico.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...Please Monitor
Products Issued By Your National Meteorological Service.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 400 Pm Cdt...2100 Utc...The Center Of Hurricane Ernesto Was
Located Near Latitude 18.8 North...Longitude 86.2 West.

Ernesto Is Moving Toward The West-Northwest Near 15 Mph...24 Km/H.

This General Motion Is Expected To Continue Through Tonight...Followed By A Turn Toward The West On Wednesday.

On The Forecast Track...The Center Will Cross The East Coast Of The Yucatan Peninsula Tonight.

The Center Of Ernesto Is Forecast To Move Across The Yucatan Peninsula Late Tonight And Early Wednesday...And Emerge Over The Bay Of Campeche By Wednesday Afternoon Or Evening.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 80 Mph...130 Km/H...With Higher
Gusts.

Ernesto Is A Category One Hurricane On The Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.

Some Additional Strengthening Is Possible Before Ernesto Reaches The Yucatan Peninsula.

Weakening Is Expected As Ernesto Moves Over Land.

Hurricane Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 35 Miles...55 Km...From The Center...And Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 140 Miles...220 Km.

Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 983 Mb...29.03 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
Wind...Hurricane Conditions Are Expected To Reach The East Coast Of The Yucatan Peninsula In The Warning Area Tonight.

Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected Along Portions Of The Gulf Coast Of Mexico In The Tropical Storm Warning Area By Wednesday Afternoon.

Rainfall...Ernesto Is Expected To Produce Total Rainfall
Accumulations Of 3 To 5 Inches Along The Northern Coast Of
Honduras...With Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 8 Inches Over
Mountainous Terrain.

Total Rainfall Accumulations Of 4 To 8 Inches With Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 12 Inches Are Possible Over Belize...The Yucatan Peninsula And Northern Guatemala.

These Rains May Produce Life Threatening Flash Floods And Mud Slides Over Higher Terrain.

Storm Surge...A Dangerous Storm Surge Will Raise Water Levels By
As Much As 2 To 4 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels Along The Immediate Coast Near And To The North Of Where The Center Makes Landfall On The East Coast Of The Yucatan Peninsula.

A Storm Surge Of 1 To 3 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels Is Likely In Areas Of Onshore Winds In The Warning Area Along The Gulf Coast Of Mexico.

Near The Coast...The Surge Will Be Accompanied By Large And Dangerous Waves.

Next Advisory
-------------
Next Intermediate Advisory...700 Pm Cdt.
Next Complete Advisory...1000 Pm Cdt.

Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane Ernesto Discussion Number 26
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
400 Pm Cdt Tue Aug 07 2012

Ernesto Has Now Become A Well-Organized Tropical Cyclone With
Distinct Convective Banding Features Over All Quadrants Of The
Circulation...And Well-Defined Cirrus-Level Outflow.

The Initial Intensity Is Kept At 70 Kt Pending The Arrival Of Another Air Force Hurricane Hunter Aircraft...Scheduled For A 0000 Utc Fix.

Given The Conducive Conditions...Additional Strengthening Is Certainly Possible Until The Center Moves Inland.

Restrengthening Is Expected When Ernesto Moves Into The Bay Of Campeche...But Rapid Weakening And Dissipation Should Occur After The Second Landfall In Mexico Due To Very High Terrain.

Although The Global Models Suggest That Ernesto Could Regenerate Over The Eastern Pacific... That Unusual Event Is Not Being Predicted At This Time.

Based On The Aircraft And Visible Satellite Fixes...The
West-Northwestward Motion...300/13...Continues.

Dynamical Track Models Continue To Indicate A Turn Toward The West With Ernesto Moving To The South Of A Narrow Mid-Level Ridge Over The Gulf Of Mexico.

However...Since The Center Has Moved A Little Farther North Than Expected...The Official Forecast Track Is Shifted A Bit North Of The Previous One. This Is Very Close To The Model Consensus And The New Ecmwf Track.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 07/2100z 18.8n 86.2w 70 Kt 80 Mph
12h 08/0600z 19.4n 88.0w 70 Kt 80 Mph...Inland
24h 08/1800z 19.7n 90.4w 45 Kt 50 Mph...Inland
36h 09/0600z 19.8n 92.6w 55 Kt 65 Mph...Over Water
48h 09/1800z 19.8n 94.4w 65 Kt 75 Mph...Over Water
72h 10/1800z 19.5n 97.5w 35 Kt 40 Mph...Inland
96h 11/1800z...Dissipated

Forecaster Pasch