Tropical Storm Ernesto Advisory Number 22
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1100 Pm Edt Mon Aug 06 2012

Summary Of 1100 Pm Edt...0300 Utc...Information
-----------------------------------------------
Location...17.0n 82.7w
About 265 Mi...425 Km E Of Isla Roatan Honduras
About 365 Mi...585 Km E Of Belize City
Maximum Sustained Winds...65 Mph...100 Km/H
Present Movement...Wnw Or 300 Degrees At 13 Mph...20 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...994 Mb...29.35 Inches

Watches And Warnings
--------------------
Changes With This Advisory...

None.

Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Hurricane Warning Is In Effect For...
* Chetumal To Punta Allen On The East Coast Of The Yucatan Peninsula
* The Entire Coast Of Belize

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For...
* The Coast Of Honduras From The Honduras/Nicaragua Border Westward To Punta Sal...Including The Bay Islands
* North Of Punta Allen To Tulum On The East Coast Of The Yucatan
Peninsula

A Tropical Storm Watch Is In Effect For...
* The Coast Of Honduras From West Of Punta Sal To The
Honduras/Guatemala Border
* North Of Tulum To Cancun On The East Coast Of The Yucatan
Peninsula

A Hurricane Warning Means That Hurricane Conditions Are Expected
Somewhere Within The Warning Area. A Warning Is Typically Issued
36 Hours Before The Anticipated First Occurrence Of Tropical-Storm-
Force Winds...Conditions That Make Outside Preparations Difficult
Or Dangerous. Preparations To Protect Life And Property Should Be
Rushed To Completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are
Expected Somewhere Within The Warning Area.

A Tropical Storm Watch Means That Tropical Storm Conditions Are
Possible Within The Watch Area...Generally Within 48 Hours.

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area...Please Monitor
Products Issued By Your National Meteorological Service.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 1100 Pm Edt...0300 Utc...The Center Of Tropical Storm Ernesto Was Located Near Latitude 17.0 North...Longitude 82.7 West.

Ernesto Is Moving Toward The West-Northwest Near 13 Mph...20 Km/H...And This General Motion Is Expected To Continue For The Next 48 Hours.

On The Forecast Track...The Center Will Be Passing North Of The Coast Of Honduras Tonight And Tuesday...And Be Near The East Coast Of The Yucatan Peninsula Early Wednesday.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 65 Mph...100 Km/H...With Higher
Gusts.

Some Strengthening Is Forecast During The Next 48 Hours... And Ernesto Is Forecast To Become A Hurricane By Tuesday Evening.

Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 125 Miles...
205 Km...Mainly Northeast And East Of The Center.

The Minimum Central Pressure Recently Reported By An Air Force
Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft Was 994 Mb...29.35 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
Wind...Tropical Storm Conditions Are Expected In The Tropical Storm
Warning Area Along The Coast Of Honduras Tonight Through Tuesday.

Hurricane Conditions Are Expected To Reach The Coasts Of Belize And Mexico By Early Wednesday...With Tropical Storm Conditions Possible By Tuesday Afternoon.

Rainfall...Ernesto Is Expected To Produce Rainfall Totals Of 3 To 5
Inches Along The Northern Coast Of Honduras And The Northeast Coast Of Nicaragua...With Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 8 Inches Over Mountainous Terrain.

Rainfall Amounts Of 4 To 8 Inches With Isolated Maximum Amounts Of 12 Inches Are Expected Over The Southern Portion Of The Yucatan Peninsula And Belize.

These Rains Are Likely To Cause Dangerous Flash Floods And Mud Slides Over Higher Terrain.

Storm Surge...A Dangerous Storm Surge Will Raise Water Levels By
As Much As 2 To 4 Feet Above Normal Tide Levels Along The
Immediate Coast Near And To The North Of Where The Center
Makes Landfall.

Near The Coast...The Surge Will Be Accompanied By Large And Dangerous Waves.

Next Advisory
-------------
Next Intermediate Advisory...200 Am Edt.
Next Complete Advisory...500 Am Edt.

Forecaster Stewart

_____________________________________________

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 22
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1100 Pm Edt Mon Aug 06 2012

During The Past Several Hours...The Inner Core Convection Of Ernesto Has Taken A Beating Due To Mid-Level Dry Air Entrainment.

Only A Small Convective Cluster Exists Over The Low-Level Center... While The Rest Of The Significant Convection Is Occurring More Than 100 Nmi Northeast Through Southeast Of The Center.

Despite The Convective Erosion...An Air Force Reserve Recon Aircraft Has Found That The Inner Core Wind Field Remains Rather Tight With A Radius Of 12-15 Nmi.

The Strongest 850 Mb Flight-Level Wind Observed Thus Far Has Been 61 Kt In The Northeast Quadrant And The Highest Rain-Adjusted Sfmr Surface Wind Measured Has Been 46 Kt.

Given That The Recon Found A Surface Pressure Of About 994 Mb...Which Is Close To The Previous Advisory Pressure...The Initial Intensity Will Remain At 55 Kt Until The Aircraft Completes Its Mission.

Initial Motion Estimate Is 300/11.

The Nhc Model Guidance Remains In Excellent Agreement That Ernesto Will Move In A West-Northwestward Direction For The Next 24-36 Hours And Make Landfall In About 30 Hours Near The Coasts Of Northern Belize And The Southern Yucatan Peninsula.

After Landfall Occurs...A Weak Subtropical Ridge Over The Northern Gulf Of Mexico That Extends From Texas Eastward To Florida Is Expected To Steer The Cyclone Westward Across The Bay Of Campeche...But At A Slower Forward Speed. The Official Forecast
Track Is Close To The Previous Advisory And Is Similar To The
Tightly Packed Consensus Models Tvca And Tv15.

Conditions Are Favorable For Rapid Intensification To Occur...Except
For The Lack Of Inner-Core Deep Convection.

Even Though Recon Data Indicate Ernesto Still Has A Tight Inner-Core Wind Field...Dry Air That Has Wrapped Well Into The Center Will Likely Prevent Any Strong Central Convection From Being Able To Persist Near The Low-Level Center.

However...Since Ernesto Will Be Moving Over Ssts About 1c Warmer And Into Even A Weaker Shear Environment In About 18-24 Hours... These Favorable Conditions Should Allow For At Least Some Modest Strengthening To Occur...And Ernesto Could Still Become A Hurricane Before It Makes Landfall. The Official Intensity Forecast Is Similar To The Previous Advisory...Follows The Intensity Consensus Model Iv15 Until Landfall...And Is Close To A Blend Of The Decay-Ships And Lgem Models After That.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 07/0300z 17.0n 82.7w 55 Kt 65 Mph
12h 07/1200z 17.5n 84.3w 60 Kt 70 Mph
24h 08/0000z 18.3n 86.8w 70 Kt 80 Mph
36h 08/1200z 18.9n 89.0w 45 Kt 50 Mph...Inland Over Yucatan
48h 09/0000z 19.3n 91.1w 35 Kt 40 Mph...Over Water
72h 10/0000z 19.5n 94.8w 60 Kt 70 Mph
96h 11/0000z 19.4n 97.4w 50 Kt 60 Mph...Inland
120h 12/0000z 19.2n 99.4w 20 Kt 25 Mph...Dissipating Inland

Forecaster Stewart