(Oscar's comments at bottom)
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 1 2010
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
1. A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION
...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CENTER.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
2. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS. SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS UNLIKELY BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND IN
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
Oscar Fann WTVY-TV meteorologist -
For several days this area has been viewed as likely to become a tropical depression. Today Sunday Aug 1, this tropical wave has become better organized. Miami’s National Hurricane Center currently doesn’t think the circulation is consistent enough to be labeled a tropical depression – YET. It’s just a matter of a few hours. It’s expected to become Tropical Storm COLIN shortly thereafter.
The best guess now takes the slow moving system east southeast of the Bahamas in 5 to 7 days. At that point, it’s unsure if high pressure will steer it north, east of the US or across the Florida peninsula.
Meanwhile, pressures are forecast to slowly fall across a broad area of the southwestern Atlantic into the central Caribbean over the next few days, favoring formation and/or development of tropical systems. It would not be much of a stretch to say the tropics might be pretty busy by mid August. Stay tuned.