Hurricane Forecast

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Amid the unfolding disaster left by Hurricane Katrina, Colorado State University researchers say they expect more storms over the next two months.

Researcher Philip Klotzbach says they expect that by the time the 2005 hurricane season is over, we will witness seasonal tropical cyclone activity at near-record levels.

The CSU hurricane forecast team of William Gray and Klotzbach said there is a 43 percent chance an intense hurricane will hit the US coast in September and a 15 percent chance in October. The long-term average is 27 percent in September and six percent in October.

The UU team predicted five named storms, four hurricanes and two major hurricanes for September, traditionally the most active month for hurricanes. The team predicts three named storms, two hurricanes and one major hurricane in October.

The season already has seen 12 named storms, four hurricanes and three major hurricanes. The 50-year average per season from 1950 to 2000 is 9.6 named storms, 4.9 hurricanes and 2.3 intense hurricanes.