Summary Of 1000 Pm Cdt...0300 Utc...Information
-----------------------------------------------
Location...29.2n 85.1w
About 35 Mi...55 Km SSE Of Apalachicola Florida
About 120 Mi...195 Km W Of Cedar Key Florida
Maximum Sustained Winds...45 Mph...75 Km/H
Present Movement...Ne Or 40 Degrees At 2 Mph...4 Km/H
Minimum Central Pressure...992 Mb...29.29 Inches

Watches And Warnings
--------------------
Changes With This Advisory...

The Tropical Storm Warning Has Been Discontinued West Of Mexico
Beach Florida.

Summary Of Watches And Warnings In Effect...

A Tropical Storm Warning Is In Effect For...
* The Florida Gulf Coast From Mexico Beach To Englewood

For Storm Information Specific To Your Area In The United
States...Including Possible Inland Watches And Warnings...Please
Monitor Products Issued By Your Local National Weather Service
Forecast Office.

Discussion And 48-Hour Outlook
------------------------------
At 1000 Pm Cdt...0300 Utc...The Center Of Tropical Storm Debby Was
Located Near Latitude 29.2 North...Longitude 85.1 West.

Debby Is Drifting Toward The Northeast Near 2 Mph...4 Km/H.

Slow And Possible Erratic Motion Toward The Northeast Or East-Northeast Is Expected During The Next Couple Of Days.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 45 Mph...75 Km/H...With Higher
Gusts.

Little Change In Strength Is Forecast During The Next 48 Hours.

Tropical-Storm-Force Winds Extend Outward Up To 240 Miles...390 Km..Mainly Southeast Of The Center.

However...Noaa Doppler Weather Radar Data Indicate Wind Gusts To Near 60 Mph...115 Km/H...Are Likely Occurring Along The Coast And Inland From Apalachicola Northeastward To Shell Point In The Western Big Bend Area Of Florida.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Recently Reported By An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance Aircraft Was 992 Mb...29.29 Inches.

Hazards Affecting Land
----------------------
Wind...Tropical Storm Conditions Will Continue Over Portions Of
The Florida Gulf Coast Tonight And Tuesday.

Storm Surge...Although Debby Has Weakened Some Today...Coastal
Flooding Is Not Yet Diminishing. The Combination Of A Storm Surge
And The Tide Will Cause Normally Dry Areas Near The Coast To Be
Flooded By Rising Waters. The Water Could Reach The Following
Depths Above Ground At The Time Of The Next High Tide Tuesday
Morning...

Apalachee Bay To Waccasassa Bay...3 To 5 Ft
Florida West Coast South Of Waccasassa Bay...1 To 3 Ft

The Deepest Water Will Occur Along The Immediate Coast In Areas Of Onshore Flow. Surge-Related Flooding Depends On The Relative
Timing Of The Surge And The Tidal Cycle...And Can Vary Greatly Over
Short Distances. For Information Specific To Your Area...Please
See Products Issued By Your Local National Weather Service Office.

Rainfall...Debby Is Expected To Produce The Following Additional
Rain Accumulations Over The Next Couple Of Days...6 To 12 Inches
Across Northern Florida...4 To 8 Inches Across Central Florida And
Extreme Southeastern Georgia...And 3 To 5 Inches In South Florida
And Extreme Southeastern South Carolina. Isolated Storm Total
Amounts Of 25 Inches Are Possible In North Florida.

Tornadoes...Isolated Tornadoes Will Be Possible Tonight And Tuesday Across The Florida Peninsula.

Next Advisory
-------------
Next Intermediate Advisory...100 Am Cdt.
Next Complete Advisory...400 Am Cdt.

Forecaster Stewart/Roberts

Tropical Storm Debby Discussion Number 11
Nws National Hurricane Center Miami Fl
1000 Pm Cdt Mon Jun 25 2012

After An Intense Burst Of Deep Convection Near And North Of The
Low-Level Center This Late Afternoon And Evening...The Convective
Cloud Shield Is Showing Signs Of Slowly Pulling Away From Center Of Circulation Due To Moderate To Strong Southwesterly Vertical Wind
Shear.

The Highest Reliable Sfmr Winds Reported By An Air Force Reserve Recon Aircraft This Evening Has Been 42 Kt To The West And Well Southeast Of The Center...Along With 59-Kt And 56-Kt Flight-Level Winds...Respectively.

Although The Tallahassee Doppler Weather Radar Has Been Indicating Large Winds Of 60-65 Velocities Between 2000 And 6500 Ft In Some Rather Vigorous Convection...Those Conditions Have Been Over Land.

Therefore...The Initial Intensity Will Remain At 40 Kt.

The Motion Estimate Is A Slow Drift To The Northeast Or 040/02 Kt
Over The Past 12 Hours.

There Is No Significant Change To The Previous Track Reasoning.

Upper-Air Data At 18z And 00z Indicate Debby Remains Trapped In A Blocking Ridge Pattern That Extends Across The Southeastern U.S. And Into The Eastern Gulf Of Mexico And Western Atlantic.

The Resultant Weak Steering Flow Should Keep Debby Moving Very Slowly Northeast Or Eastward At Less Than 5 Kt Throughout The Forecast Period.

In Fact...Debby Will Likely Remain Over The Northeastern Gulf Of Mexico For At Least The Next 2 Days Before It Creeps Slowly Across North Florida In Days 3-4.

In The Absence Of Any Large-Scale Steering Flow...The Low-Level Center Of Debby Will Closely Follow Any Deep Convection That Develops...Which Should Remain Primarily To Northeast Of The Center.

The Official Forecast Track Is Similar To The Previous Advisory Track Through Day 3...And Is Then A Little North Of The Previous Track And Close To The Nhc Model Consensus.

The Presence Of Dry Mid-Level Air Wrapping Into The Western And
Southern Portion Of The Circulation...Along With Southwesterly
Vertical Wind Shear Of 20-25 Kt For The Next 48 Hours Or So Should
Inhibit Any Significant Development While Debby Remains Over Water.

The Shear Decreases Significantly By 72 Hours And Beyond...But
Debby Will Be Over Or Interacting With Land At Days 3 And 4...So
That Will Prevent The Cyclone From Taking Advantage Of The
Improving Shear Conditions.

By Day 5...However...Debby Is Expected To Be Moving Over The Warmer Waters Of The Gulfstream...Which May Allow For Some Modest Strengthening To Occur After Having Weakened Over Land.

The Official Intensity Forecast Is Similar To The Previous Advisory And Closely Follows The Lgem Intensity Model.

Forecast Positions And Max Winds

Init 26/0300z 29.2n 85.1w 40 Kt 45 Mph
12h 26/1200z 29.3n 84.9w 40 Kt 45 Mph
24h 27/0000z 29.4n 84.6w 40 Kt 45 Mph
36h 27/1200z 29.5n 84.2w 40 Kt 45 Mph
48h 28/0000z 29.6n 83.6w 40 Kt 45 Mph
72h 29/0000z 29.8n 82.3w 30 Kt 35 Mph...Inland
96h 30/0000z 30.1n 80.7w 35 Kt 40 Mph...Over Water
120h 01/0000z 30.8n 78.7w 40 Kt 45 Mph

Forecaster Stewart