BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

...EARL STRENGTHENS AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 61.1W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ENE OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM E OF ST. MARTIN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND ANGUILLA
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* ST. MAARTEN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF CULEBRA AND VIEQUES

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS
CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.1 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY EARLY TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST
LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...AND NEAR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS BY LATE MONDAY.

OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THATMAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...160KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON WIND SCALE. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND
EARL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY LATE MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS IS 971 MB...28.67 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ABOUT TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS
OF THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA ON MONDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON MONDAY...WITH HURRICANECONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT.

STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WIND WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA...AND 1 TO 3 FEET IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES.

RAINFALL...EARL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES. RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THESE
RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
1100 PM AST SUN AUG 29 2010

EARL HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS RECENTLY FOUND AN SFMR-MEASURED SURFACE WIND SPEED OF 83 KT JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS FROM THE AIRCRAFT WERE 93 KT...WHICH ADJUSTS TO 84 KT AT THE SURFACE USING THE STANDARD REDUCTION FACTOR. BASED ON THESE
OBSERVATIONS...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET TO 85 KT. IMAGES FROM THE GUADELOUPE AND ST. MARTIN RADARS SHOW A BANDING-TYPE EYE ABOUT 30 N MI IN DIAMETER WHILE THE RECONNAISSANCE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT THE EYE WAS OPEN OVER THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING IMPEDED OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...BUT IS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CIRCULATION. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY SITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF EARL. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THIS TROUGH WILL SHIFT WESTWARD AND WEAKEN. THIS SHOULD CREATE A ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...SHOWS EARL BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS ABOVE THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS BUT BELOW THE LATEST GFDL HURRICANE MODEL GUIDANCE.

INITIAL MOTION...285/13...IS ABOUT THE SAME AS IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS LIKELY TO TAKE PLACE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AS THE HURRICANE ENCOUNTERS THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE. BY DAYS 3 TO 4...THE HEADING AND FORWARD SPEED OF EARL ARE DEPENDENT ON THE DETAILS OF THE EVOLUTION OF A 500 MB TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS TROUGH AMPLIFYING MORE THAN THE OTHER
DYNAMICAL MODELS AND MOVE EARL SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH A SHARPER EASTWARD TURN THAN THE OTHER GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT QUITE AS FAST AS THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED A LITTLE BASED ON DYNAMICAL...MAINLY GLOBAL MODEL...GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/0300Z 17.9N 61.1W 85 KT
12HR VT 30/1200Z 18.5N 62.7W 90 KT
24HR VT 31/0000Z 19.6N 64.6W 100 KT
36HR VT 31/1200Z 21.1N 66.4W 110 KT
48HR VT 01/0000Z 22.8N 68.2W 115 KT
72HR VT 02/0000Z 27.5N 71.5W 115 KT
96HR VT 03/0000Z 34.0N 72.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 04/0000Z 40.0N 67.0W 85 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

FROM ACCUWEATHER -
Computer forecasts still show Earl becoming a major hurricane by Tuesday and even strengthening into a Category 4 storm late Tuesday into Wednesday. The models also show Earl being in a position to possibly threaten the East Coast of the United States. However, the long-term track of Earl will be highly dependent on its speed and on the location of the upper-level wind flow over North America and the Atlantic in the early to middle parts of next week. As long as Earl continues to move quickly, it will have the potential to outrun a southward dip that will develop in the upper flow near the East Coast next week. That, or the dip in the upper wind being slower to develop, would allow the storm to get far enough west to directly impact the East Coast. So residents of and those with interests along the East Coast of the United States as well as the Bahamas, should keep a close watch on Earl's progress.