BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

...DANIELLE ACCELERATING TO THE NORTHEAST...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 58.8W
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1095 MI...1760 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.8 WEST. DANIELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. DANIELLE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB...28.29 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE WAVES AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS SHOULD DIMINISH
NEAR BERMUDA ON SUNDAY. SWELLS FROM DANIELLE ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES EAST COAST. PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 31
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

CONVECTION IN THE OUTER EYEWALL OF DANIELLE HAS BECOME DEEPER DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH AN OCCASIONAL CELL EVEN FIRING NEAR
THE DECAYED INNER EYEWALL. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE THE
BASICALLY THE SAME AS BEFORE...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 90
KT. A SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER
WATERS AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW DANIELLE BECOMING A LARGE AND POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL
HURRICANE OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION COULD BEGIN SOONER THAN SHOWN BELOW...AS
SUGGESTED BY A FEW MODELS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS FASTER THAN BEFORE...030/17. DANIELLE
IS CURRENTLY ACCELERATING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DIVES INTO THE WEST ATLANTIC OCEAN. IN 24-36 HOURS...THE
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BRIEFLY SLOW DOWN DUE TO A FAST-MOVING
MID-LATITUDE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
BETWEEN A LARGE CENTRAL ATLANTIC RIDGE AND ANOTHER MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH SHOULD THEN CAUSE DANIELLE TO BEGIN MOVING RATHER QUICKLY TO
THE NORTHEAST IN A FEW DAYS. WHILE MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT BEFORE THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL...THEY
WILDLY DIVERGE FROM THAT POINT ONWARD. THE NHC FORECAST IS
ADJUSTED EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF/GFS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0300Z 31.5N 58.8W 90 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 34.2N 56.8W 85 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 37.5N 54.7W 75 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 39.4N 52.5W 70 KT
48HR VT 31/0000Z 40.8N 48.7W 65 KT
72HR VT 01/0000Z 45.0N 34.0W 65 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT 02/0000Z 52.5N 30.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 03/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE