BULLETIN
HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

...DANIELLE WEAKENING A LITTLE...EXPECTED TO PASS WELL EAST
OF BERMUDA LATER TONIGHT...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 59.7W
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

AT 5 PM AST...THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.7 WEST. DANIELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/HR. THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. DANIELLE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE
ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...LARGE WAVES AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT BERMUDA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SWELLS FROM DANIELLE WILL BEGIN TO ARRIVE
ON THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES LATER TODAY. THESE SWELLS
ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA

DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 PM AST SAT AUG 28 2010

VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A METOP-A AMSU OVERPASS INDICATE THAT ONLY A
FRAGMENT OF THE INNER EYEWALL EXISTS. THE AMSU IMAGE ALSO SHOWED
THAT THE 45 NMI DIAMETER OUTER CONCENTRIC RING HAS ERODED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE
DECREASED TO 90 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND SO HAS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR APPEARS TO BE IMPINGING THE OUTFLOW
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CYCLONE. THE SHEAR...ASSOCIATED WITH
AN APPROACHING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...SHOULD INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT PREVENTING DANIELLE FROM RE-STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON THE ICON INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AND
REFLECTS GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH DAY 4 AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES
ITS TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW...WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
INTENSITY THEREAFTER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OR 030/11.
DANIELLE HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEP LAYER BAROCLINIC SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN. A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST
NEAR THE 36 PERIOD AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE PASSES TO THE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE. AT DAY 3...ANOTHER CANADIAN PULSE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...CAUSING DANIELLE TO AGAIN ACCELERATE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD
INDUCE A SHARP TURN NORTHWARD TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS...PRIMARILY THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE CANADIAN.

INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED USING A 1426 UTC ASCAT PASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/2100Z 30.3N 59.7W 90 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 32.3N 58.2W 90 KT
24HR VT 29/1800Z 36.1N 55.6W 85 KT
36HR VT 30/0600Z 38.8N 53.8W 75 KT
48HR VT 30/1800Z 40.3N 50.5W 65 KT
72HR VT 31/1800Z 45.0N 38.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 01/1800Z 53.0N 33.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 02/1800Z 54.0N 41.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/AVILA