NEAR TERM [through Tonight]...
Surface high pressure remains centered over the forecast area
keeping lower levels dry and the near-term forecast rain-free.
At upper levels, we see a split flow pattern across the U.S.
There is a decent looking short wave in the southern stream that is crossing the Lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon. This system will be associated with an increase in mid and high clouds across the
This increase in cloud cover will keep temps from falling as low as recent mornings. Coolest readings will be in the mid 40s across inland portions of the Florida Big Bend. Parts of Southwest GA and Southeast AL will see lows in the lower 50s. Coastal areas will be milder in the 55-60 degree range.
SHORT TERM [Monday through Tuesday Night]...
The first two days of the new work week will be characterized by
gradually rising mid-upper level heights and 1000-500mb thickness
as a ridge builds over the eastern half of the United States with
an amplifying flow pattern.
As has been advertised, this is going to lead to a warming trend with dry weather. Highs look to be in the low 80s, which is slightly above normal. Lows are forecast to be in the mid-50s which slightly above normal as well.
The only chance of rain that the models hint at during the period is
briefly tomorrow in the northern part of our area (SE AL, SW GA)
due to a brief window of isentropic ascent in the mid-levels.
Given light QPF and a fairly dry boundary layer, we have kept a
dry forecast for now with PoPs less than 10%.
LONG TERM [Wednesday through Sunday]...
The main weather story during the extended period, and the entire
seven day forecast for that matter, continues to be a cold front
that will approach on Friday and Friday Night.
Prior to the front, above normal temperatures should continue with fairly dry weather.
Most of the forcing should be associated with the low-level front so as of right now we are expecting a fairly narrow band of rain and thunderstorms very close to the cold front. However, the parent low will be rapidly deepening as it ejects northeast into the Great Lakes, a pattern that does not typically favor a fast forward motion of cold fronts along the Gulf coast.
Therefore, the cold front could take some time passing through the area. Due to that and timing uncertainty, PoPs are spread from Thursday Night to Saturday, although the window for rainfall could narrow as the event approaches.
AVIATION [through 18 UTC Monday]...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through this TAF period with perhaps a brief period of MVFR visibility at VLD early Monday morning.
With the center of a surface high still situated relatively close to the area, winds should be fairly light through Monday afternoon.
As the high begins to erode on Monday, the pressure gradient should slowly increase over the northeast Gulf, with winds periodically approaching SCEC levels (15 knots) during the mid-week time frame.
As a cold front approaches on Thursday and Friday, SCEC winds will become more likely.
A slow moistening trend has begun, and red flag conditions are
unlikely this week.
No rainfall is forecast through at least Thursday.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 46 81 53 83 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 56 80 59 81 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 52 80 54 81 56 / 0 10 0 0 10
Albany 51 81 53 82 55 / 0 10 0 0 10
Valdosta 48 81 54 82 56 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 45 81 53 83 57 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 54 78 59 79 63 / 0 0 0 0 0