Severe Weather Threat thru May 30

Fri May 23 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
Slgt Risk Svr Tstms for parts of Srn Nc to Sc...
Slgt Risk Svr Tstms for parts of Sern Nm and Far West Tx...

A Few Strong To Severe Thunderstorms May Develop Across Parts Of Far West Texas And Southeast New Mexico.

Severe Storms May Also Develop Across Parts Of Southeastern North Carolina Into Eastern South Carolina.

Widely Scattered Strong Storms May Also Develop Over Ern Montana.

Upper Pattern Will Change Little This Period. The Cutoff Low Over The Swrn U.S. Will Drift Slowly East...Becoming Centered Over Ern Az
By The End Of This Period.

Shortwave Trough Currently Moving Through The Great Lakes Will Advance Sewd And Exit The Middle Atlantic Coast Friday Evening.

This Feature Will Be Accompanied By A Frontal Surge That Will Push Sewd Through The Carolinas Friday Afternoon And Evening.

Trailing Portion Of This Boundary Will Extend Wwd Into The Lower Ms Valley Then Nwwd As A Warm Front Into The Cntrl Plains.

Sern Nc Into Cntrl/Ern Sc....

Strong Diabatic Warming Of The Moist Warm Sector And Ewd-Advecting Plume Of Steep Lapse Rates Will Contribute To Moderate Instability Friday Afternoon From Srn Nc Into Sc With Mlcape From 1500-2000 J/Kg Possible.

As The Boundary Layer Destabilizes And The Cap Weakens...A Few Storms Should Develop Along Pre-Frontal Convergence Zones As
Well As Sewd-Advancing Front During The Late Afternoon And Evening.

Deep-Layer Vertical Shear Will Increase Within Nrn Portion Of Warm
Sector As A Mid-Level Jet Rotates Sewd Along Srn Periphery Of The
Progressive Shortwave Trough.

The Resulting Unidirectional 0-6 Km Shear From 35-45 Kt Will Support Potential For Supercells And Some Storm Splits/Left Movers Capable Of Producing Very Large Hail.

Storms May Eventually Evolve Into Clusters As They Continue Sewd
During The Early Evening With A Continued Threat For Large Hail And
Damaging Wind Gusts.

Far West Tx Into Sern Nm...

Plume Of Deeper Subtropical Moisture Will Shift East Through Wrn Tx.
This Will Allow Potential For Stronger Diabatic Warming Of The Boundary Layer Farther West Across Far Western Tx And Eastern Nm
Where Sely Low-Level Flow Should Help Maintain Dewpoints In The 50s.

Mlcape Is Expected To Increase To 1000-1500 J/Kg In This Region
During The Afternoon.

As The Upper Low Continues Slowly East...0-6 Km Shear Should Approach 35-40 Kt By Late Afternoon.

Models Continue To Suggest Another More Concentrated Round Of Storms May Develop During The Early Evening Over Srn Nm In Response To Increasing Ascent Associated With A Vort Max Rotating Through Base Of The Upper Low Circulation.

Vertical Shear At This Time Should Support Some Organized Structures Including Supercells Before Activity Consolidates Into An Mcs Overnight.

Large Hail And Damaging Wind Will Be The Main Threats.

Ern Mt...

A Few High-Based Storms Will Likely Develop Over The Higher Terrain
And High Plains Of Mt In Association With Plume Of Deeper Subtropical Moisture Spreading Nwd Along Ern Periphery Of The Upper Low Circulation.

Steep Lapse Rates And Deeply Mixed Boundary Layers Within A Weak-Shear Environment Will Promote High-Based Multicells Capable Of Producing Downbursts As Well As Some Hail.


Sat May 24 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
Slgt Risk Svr Tstms for parts of Srn High Plains...

Numerous Thunderstorms Should Develop Across The Southern High Plains Saturday;

Several Storms May Produce Severe Hail And Damaging Wind Gusts.

Isolated Thunderstorms...A Few Strong...May Develop Across The Northern High Plains And Over The Southeastern U.S. Into The Florida Peninsula.

Srn High Plains...

An Upper-Level Low Over The Desert Southwest Will Move Slowly Newd On Saturday As Difluent South To Southwesterly Mid-Level Flow
Remains Over The Srn High Plains.

At The Sfc...A Trough Will Be In Place Across The Srn Rockies As Backed Southeasterly Flow Continues Across The Srn High Plains.

By Saturday Afternoon...Moderate Instability Is Forecast To Develop Across Pecos River Valley Of West Tx Extending Nwd Across Ern Nm And Into The Tx Panhandle.

Scattered Thunderstorms Should Develop Late Saturday Afternoon Along The Corridor Of Moderate Instability With Several Convective Clusters Organizing And Persisting Through The Evening.

Nam Forecast Soundings Early Saturday Evening From Amarillo Tx Swd To Midland Tx Show Sfc Dewpoints In The Upper 50s And Lower 60s F Which Should Result In Mlcape In The 1000 To 1500 J/Kg Range.

In Addition...Forecast Soundings Show Veering Winds With Height Below 700 Mb With 0-6 Km Shear Of 40 To 45 Kt Suggesting The Environment Should Support Supercell Development.

Steep Lapse Rates Between 700 And 500 Mb Should Be Favorable For Large Hail.

Wind Damage May Also Occur Due To The Very Steep Low-Level Lapse Rates Especially If Cell Mergers Can Occur Or Short-Line Segments Can Develop.

Nrn High Plains...

An Upper-Level Trough Will Move Across The Nrn Rockies On Saturday As Southwest Flow Remains In Place Across The Nrn High Plains.

At The Sfc...A Trough Should Be Located From Ern Mt Extending Sewd Into Cntrl Sd Along Which Sfc Dewpoints Are Forecast To Be In The Lower To Mid 50s F.

This Should Be Enough To For A Corridor Of Moderate Instability In Ern Mt And The Wrn Dakotas By Afternoon Along Which Isolated Thunderstorm Development Should Take Place.

Forecast Soundings Across The Nrn High Plains Late Saturday Afternoon Show Mlcape Of 1000 To 1500 J/Kg.

This Combined With 20 To 25 Kt Of 0-6 Km Shear Should Be Enough For Marginally Severe Multicells Capable Of Producing Strong Wind Gusts And Hail.

Mid-Ms Valley/Gulf Coast States...

A Quasi-Stationary Frontal Boundary Should Be In Place On Saturday
From The Ozarks Esewd Across The Gulf Coast States.

Along And South Of The Boundary...Sfc Dewpoints Are Forecast To Be In The Lower To Mid 60s F Which Should Enable Moderate Instability To Develop As Sfc Temps Warm During The Day.

Isolated Thunderstorms Appear Likely To Initiate Along And To The South Of The Frontal Boundary As Low-Level Convergence Increases During The Afternoon.

The Stronger Convection May Be Able To Produce Strong Wind Gusts Due To The Steep Low-Level Lapse Rates In Place.


Sun May 25 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
Slgt Risk Svr Tstms for parts of Srn High Plains...

Scattered Severe Storms With Isolated Large Hail And Wind Damage
Will Likely Develop Across Parts Of The Southern High Plains Sunday
Afternoon And Evening.

Other Marginally Severe Storms Should Develop Across Parts Of The Northern Plains And Across Parts Of The Southeastern U.S. Sunday Afternoon And Evening.

Srn High Plains...

An Upper-Level Low Will Move Newd Across The Four Corners Region On Sunday And Into The Srn Rockies.

At The Sfc...A Trough Is Forecast Across The Srn Rockies With Sely Flow Located Across Much Of The Srn High Plains.

As A Result...Sfc Dewpoints Across Ern Nm And West Tx Should Be In The Upper 50s And Lower 60s F.

This Will Make The Development Of Moderate Instability Probable Across Much Of The Slight-Risk Area By Sunday Afternoon With Scattered Thunderstorm Initiation Expected To Take Place.

As In Previous Days...Forecast Soundings Across The Srn High Plains Sunday Afternoon Show Veering Winds With Height Below 700 Mb...40 Kt Of 0-6 Km Shear And Steep Mid-Level Lapse Rates.

This Will Result In An Environment Favorable For Supercells And Large Hail.

Damaging Wind Gusts Will Also Be Possible Especially If A Convective Cluster Can Organize A Cold Pool.

Nrn Plains...

A Shortwave Trough Is Forecast To Move Ewd Across The Dakotas On
Sunday As A Cold Front Advances Sewd Across The Region.

Thunderstorm Development Will Be Likely Along The Boundary Sunday Afternoon Where Moderate Instability And Steep Mid-Level Lapse Rates Should Be In Place.

Forecast Soundings For Sunday Afternoon Across The Nrn Plains
Show 0-6 Km Shear In The 20 To 30 Kt Range.

This Relatively Weak Shear Suggests That The Potential For Storm Organization Should Remain Marginal.

Hail And Strong Gusty Winds Will Be The Primary Threats.

Mid Ms Valley/Gulf Coast States/Nrn To Cntrl Fl...

An Old Quasi-Stationary Frontal Boundary Is Forecast To Be Located
From The Tn Valley Sewd Across Wrn And Srn Ga Into Nrn Fl.

Sfc Dewpoints Along The Boundary Are Forecast To Be In The Lower To Mid 60s F.

As Sfc Temps Warm Up...Moderate Instability Should Be In Place By Sunday Afternoon With Isolated Storm Initiation Taking Place Near The Boundary.

Forecast Soundings Along The Boundary At 21z/Sun Show Steep Low-Level Lapse Rates In Addition To A Moist Boundary Layer Suggesting That The Stronger Cells May Be Able To Produce Strong And Gusty Winds.


May 26-30 Convective Outlook
Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

The Gfs And Ecmwf Model Solutions Begin The Day 4 To 8 Period In
Reasonably Good Agreement With An Upper-Level Low Over The Srn

At The Sfc...A Corridor Of Instability Is Forecast To Be In Place Across The Srn High Plains Where Scattered Severe Thunderstorms May Develop Monday Afternoon And Evening/Day 4.

The Models Move The System Ewd Across The Srn Plains On Tuesday/Day 5.

Based On The Forecast Pattern...The Moist Sector Would Be In Place
Across The Srn Plains And Arklatex Region Suggesting That Severe
Thunderstorm Activity May Develop Tuesday Afternoon From Cntrl And
Ern Ok Swd Across Much Of The Ern Half Of Tx.

The Ecmwf And Gfs Solutions Diverge On Wednesday/Day 6 With The Gfs Driving The System Sewd Into The Lower Ms Valley And The Ecmwf Keeping The Upper-Level Low Over The Cntrl States.

The Difference In Solutions Add Uncertainty To The Position Of The Moist Axis On Wednesday.

The Ecmwf Suggests That Severe Thunderstorm Activity Will Be Possible Wednesday Afternoon Across Ar...Ms And La Where A Low-Level Jet Max Is Forecast.

Other Storms...With Some Possibly Severe...Could Occur Over The Nrn High Plains Where The Gfs And Ecmwf Show Convective Development Along A Narrow Moist Corridor.

Beyond Day 6...Model Solutions Are Considerably Different Suggesting Much Uncertainty Exists In The Later Part Of The Day 4 To 8 Period.

Although Severe-Thunderstorm Development Will Be Possible Each Day During The Day 4 To 8 Period...As An Upper-Level System Moves Slowly Ewd Across The Scntrl U.S...Predictability Remains Low Concerning The Severe Threat Becoming Enhanced In Any Region.

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