Near Term [Through Today]...
After some patchy fog burns off once again this morning, a mostly
sunny and unseasonably hot day is expected across the region
With both Sfc and upper level ridging continuing to strengthen their grip across our area, a noticeable trend of warmer lower and mid level air is advecting in from the NW, and can easily be seen on both TAE`s and BMX`s recent soundings.
Therefore, with more convective inhibition in place, do not expect as widespread or deep of a CU field to develop along the sea breeze front when it forms this afternoon.
This should allow for more sunshine over the area than during the past couple of days, and when combined with the warming 850 mb temps, we expect high temperatures to reach the middle 90s over much of the interior, with a few possible hot spots (like VLD) approaching the upper 90s.
Near the coast, the sea breeze will still be fairly strong (albeit with less cloudiness), so highs near the beaches will be held into the lower to middle 80s.
Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
From tonight through Friday night the deep ridging in place over our area will persist, but begin to break down on Saturday.
This should maintain the hot, dry, and sunny weather that we will have
seen over the previous couple days.
The GEFS and SREF ensemble mean 850mb temperatures fall slightly from Friday to Saturday, suggesting that although both days will be hot, Friday should be a couple degrees warmer.
A few locations on Friday could conceivably hit the upper 90s.
The 22.00z GFS hints at some isolated showers or storms late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening over parts of the area, but there was not enough consistency from other models to warrant mentioning any rain.
Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
Deep layer ridging will gradually return to our forecast area through Tuesday.
Isolated, mainly afternoon & evening thunderstorms will be possible as deep layer moisture will not be as low as what we`re currently observing.
However, it`s still a bit too early in the season for more numerous thunderstorms to develop through mesoscale boundary interactions.
The GFS & ECMWF diverge on Wednesday, but both show our region under the growing influence of a mid-upper level low pressure system- resulting in near-climo PoPs (around 30%) during the daytime, but for different reasons.
Temperatures will be near climo through the period.
With the drier air continuing to filter in, only expect possible brief periods of MVFR level VIS at the terminals tonight, with VFR conditions prevailing through the period.
The most significant concern may be some gusty (10 to 15 kts and possibly higher) W-SW winds developing this afternoon.
Models have now been very consistent in showing an area of 15-20
knot sustained winds over Apalachee Bay and adjacent nearshore
waters later today (associated with a stronger sea breeze circulation).
Because of this, we have added a SCEC headline just for the afternoon and early evening hours.
Otherwise, most of the forecast looks to be dominated by weak flow with winds less than 15 knots and seas 2 feet or less.
Although afternoon relative humidities will be fairly low across much of the interior this afternoon, they are not expected to become low enough to cause any Red Flag concerns.
Additionally, other critical parameters are not expected to be met.
Two river sites are in minor flood stage.
The Choctawhatchee River at Bruce is reaching its broad crest right at minor flood stage (13 feet) today and is forecast to last through Friday.
The Steinhatchee River near Steinhatchee is also in minor flood stage, but should fall below flood stage (12.2 feet) by Thursday morning.
Otherwise, our area rivers are below flood stage, with 11 other points along 7 area rivers remaining in bankfull stage.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 95 63 96 67 94 / 0 0 0 0 10
Panama City 84 68 87 71 88 / 0 0 0 0 10
Dothan 93 66 95 68 93 / 0 0 0 0 10
Albany 93 67 95 68 93 / 0 0 0 0 10
Valdosta 97 65 97 67 95 / 0 0 0 0 10
Cross City 92 65 92 67 93 / 0 0 0 0 10
Apalachicola 85 68 89 71 88 / 0 0 0 0 10