NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
216 PM EDT Sat Mar 29 2014
Near Term [Through Tonight]...
As a cold front moves through the region this afternoon, a few light
showers may develop along it as it moves into the more unstable
Suwannee Valley. Otherwise, low clouds will spread in behind the
front and it will take several hours of northerly flow to flush out
all of the low layer moisture. By sunset though, most places should
be under clear skies.
Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
As the upper trough exits east of the area, ridging will replace it
across the Southeast. Surface high pressure over the Mississippi
Valley at the start of the period will build east and then south.
This is a dry pattern that will foster large diurnal swings in
This airmass will bring us below normal temps at first with highs on Sunday about 3-5 degrees below normal in the lower 70s. Sunday night will be chilly with lows dipping to the upper 30s and lower 40s inland, some 8-10 degrees below normal. The dry airmass will allow temps to recover quickly, in some cases by 40 degrees, to afternoon highs in the upper 70s. It will not be quite as chilly Monday night, but still several degrees below normal.
Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
Deep layer high pressure will maintain warm and dry weather across
the region through Thursday.
Look for daytime highs in the lower 80s during this period with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Rain chances will return to the forecast for Thursday night through
Saturday as the next frontal system approaches from the west.
Model discrepancies exist concerning how quickly the front will move east, with the Euro being more progressive than the GFS.
Highest PoPs for this period will be on Friday ranging from 50 northwest to 10 southeast.
Daytime temps during this wetter period will be in the 70s with lows generally 55 to 60 degrees.
MVFR ceilings will spread in behind a cold front this afternoon.
Some scattering and breaks to VFR will be possible, though prevailing VFR should not be expected until after sunset.
Gusty winds around 25 knots will continue through sunset as well.
Thereafter, steady northwest winds under clear skies will prevail for the remainder of the TAF.
A cold front will sweep across the waters this evening with offshore
flow quickly increasing to small craft advisory levels.
This will be a short-lived event as high pressure builds over the waters and drops winds and seas below headline criteria by Sunday afternoon.
Winds will eventually veer to onshore for the work week as high
pressure takes up residence east of the area.
Winds and seas will remain low through the period before a slight increase commences on Thursday.
Dry conditions will persist over the next several days, with critically low relative humidity values possible.
However, fuel moisture levels are too low across Florida and Georgia to warrant any hazardous fire weather conditions.
The only concern at the moment will be whether or not Alabama reaches 4 or more hours of critical relative humidity levels on Monday.
Minor flooding is forecast along the Choctawhatchee River at
Caryville early next week.
Many rivers remain in action stage, but no flooding is expected.
Rainfall totals ending at 7 am this morning ranged from 2.5 inches in Southeast Alabama to 1.5 inches elsewhere.
The next chance for rain is Friday of next week.
For the latest river stages and forecasts, please visit:
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 45 73 39 79 41 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 50 70 48 73 50 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 42 70 41 78 46 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 42 71 40 78 45 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 45 71 40 80 43 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 47 72 39 77 41 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 50 69 45 72 47 / 0 0 0 0 0
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Sunday for Apalachee Bay-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Sunday
for Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM -Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.