NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1016 AM EDT Sat Mar 15 2014
Near Term [Through Today]...
This morning`s surface analysis put the Tri-State region right in the center of an area of high pressure.
To our north, a surface trough extends down the spine of the Appalachians, westward into the Lower Mississippi Valley where it links up with a very weak stationary boundary.
Aloft, southwesterly southern stream flow dominates locally, with a wavy northern stream pattern along it`s northern edge.
A saturated airmass, generated from synoptic scale ascent across
the Southern Plains, is streaming eastward in the fast mid/upper
flow pattern. As it does so, it is very gradually ascending over
the cool ridge. This is generating an area of light but isolated
showers across the Southeast, through AL/GA/SC.
Closer to the Florida coastline, southwesterly moist transport
along the 295K surface (or around 850 mb) is flowing over the
nocturnally cooled boundary layer resulting in another area of
isolated light showers. These light showers may spread into our
extreme western Panhandle counties this morning into the early
Thereafter, gradual boundary layer warming should limit the upslope component locally with low-level flow backing a bit, ttaking on a more southerly component and focused more west of us nearer to the developing area of low pressure.
All of the above result in a slight chance for a shower or two, west of the Apalachicola river today, with a rather sharp gradient in cloud cover, and subsequently temperatures east and west of the river.
Expect low 70s to the west, with mid 70s, and a few upper 70s to the east.
Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
Expect an unsettled weather pattern as a potent low pressure system
develops over the Southern Plains and moves across the Gulf coastal
The 00z NAM and 00z GFS are in fairly good agreement WRT strength and placement of low and upper level features.
Although the 12z ECMWF is a bit of an outlier, there is still a general agreement on widespread rains across the Tri-state region through the period.
The NAM and GFS are more robust showing a closed upper low tracking along the Gulf coast with the surface reflection just out ahead of it through midday Monday before beginning to lift northeast Monday
This scenario coupled with a moist and moderatly unstable environment along with a forecast low level jet averaging between 40
and 50 kts brings a threat of severe storms with it.
The latest day 2 severe weather outlook from SPC highlights the Florida Panhandle, the westernmost Big Bend and a small portion of our SE AL zones for a slight risk after 12z Sunday as these areas enter the warm sector. Model forecast soundings show mostly unidirectional flow with 0-6 km shear around 45 kts.
The greatest severe threat would be damaging straight line winds.
Although, a tornado threat would also be a concern mainly along the coast of the Florida panhandle midday Sunday as the squall line interacts with the aforementioned low level jet.
PoPs will be tapered likely west to silent 10% SE Big Bend tonight then likely to categorical for the remainder of the period.
Temps will be near seasonal levels.
Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
The period looks mostly dry with mainly zonal flow locally.
A weak front may approach by Thursday with just a slight chance of light showers.
Seasonal temperatures are expected.
VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals today.
Expect mid/upper clouds scattered around the region, with some lower cigs around 5 kft at KDHN and KECP.
Late tonight, MVFR ceilings will gradually overspread KDHN and KECP with showers likely holding off until around 12z.
Generally light to moderate winds and seas will continue through
today before the next low pressure system begins to affect the
area more significantly.
On Sunday, advisory level southerly winds are expected with increasing seas and surf.
The increasing onshore flow will result in more dangerous surf conditions and a high risk for rip currents.
West to northwest winds may stay elevated behind the front on Monday with improving conditions by midweek.
Low level moisture will be on the increase today as the dry ridge
of high pressure on Friday gradually pushes to the east of the FL
Peninsula today out ahead of an approaching low pressure system
from the west.
This low is expected to bring a widespread wetting rain to the region on Sunday through Monday which will keep both soil moistures and relative humidities high through early next week, effectively eliminating the chances for any red flag conditions.
Area rivers remain below flood stage.
A period of moderate to locally heavy rain is expected across the area Sunday and Sunday night, with widespread amounts of 1-2 inches and locally higher totals.
The Big Bend area could see amounts of up to 3 inches which would include the Suwannee River basin, but since rainfall will be in the lower drainages this should not be problematic.
Overall expect some rises on area rivers with little to low impact.
The rest of the week looks dry allowing rivers to subside again.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 74 56 73 63 74 / 0 30 80 80 80
Panama City 70 61 72 63 71 / 10 40 90 80 80
Dothan 71 59 72 61 69 / 10 60 90 70 80
Albany 72 55 72 61 68 / 0 40 90 80 90
Valdosta 76 53 75 63 74 / 0 20 70 80 80
Cross City 74 52 75 66 75 / 0 10 70 80 80
Apalachicola 68 61 70 63 73 / 0 30 80 90 80