NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
238 PM EDT Sat Jun 28 2014
Near Term [Through Tonight]...
An isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible through this
Evening…then partly cloudy overnight with lows in the lower to mid
Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
A hot and relatively dry pattern will persist thru the short term.
The deep layer ridging will prevail across our forecast area although a series of shortwaves exiting ewd from upstream trough will begin to weaken and retrograde ridge by Mon night.
However, a low remains off N/Cntrl fl coast keeping CWA on its sinking
All models forecasting above-average 500 and 850 mb heights.
At surface, NE Gulf high shifts Wwd with weakening ridge Mon-Mon
Low off GA/NE FL Coast on Sunday is forecast to drift Swd to off NE FL thru Mon night but noted model differences.
NAM shifts low Swwd and close to coast while GFS/ECMWF take a more sly and less aggressive track. Either way, local impact should be minimal.
Best scenario is focused on mainly 1000-700mb NLY flow pinning any sea breeze near coast.
With very little forcing, and abnormally low SBCAPE values, expect NIL POPs on Sunday except for 20-30% SE Big Bend and 20-30% on Mon, highest Ern counties closest to low and furthest from ridge axis.
The above normal H85/5 temps combined with NLY flow and lack of clouds means hot daytime temperatures in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees. It will feel muggy but fortunately there will be enough boundary layer drying to limit heat index values below 105. Lows will be in the low to mid 70s.
Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
The period begins with Gulf ridging weakening/retrograding in
response to Nrn stream longwave trough moving Ewd into east half
Trough progressively deepens SEWD thru early Fri further weakening ridge.
Then, it lifts ENE of CWA and ridge begins to restrengthen.
At surface, trough assocd with upper trough pushed into SE region Tues into Wed with assocd low off NE FL Coast.
However, models not in good agreement with evolution of low. NAM
more aggressive with closed low remaining off NE FL coast, while
GFS weakest maintaining open trough over Cntrl FL Peninsula. ECMWF in between taking a weak low Newd.
Still, NHC notes that conditions are conducive for gradual tropical development of low, 40% chance thru 48hrs and 60% thru 5 days and although main impact would be along east coast, system will be closely monitored.
Overall forecast will show deepening trough with increasing SWLY flow, deep layer moisture and impulses ejecting SEWD over CWA, Tues thru Thurs which kicks surface tough Newd and low to GA/SC border by early Fri allowing surface ridging to rebuild into CWA for a return to a more typical summertime pattern centered around daily sea breeze development.
Will go with 30% Tues, 30-60% Wed thru early Fri, then 20-40% on Sat.
Period will be quite warm with highs in the mid to upper 90s with a few spots approaching 100 degrees each day.
Highs on Fri and Sat in the low to mid 90s. Lows generally in the low to mid 70s.
VFR conditions will prevail through the period with light winds.
An area of high pressure will remain centered southwest of the FL
Panhandle, providing light northwest winds and low seas across the
The exception will be during the afternoon & early evening hours, as strong daytime heating of the land will cause the winds to increase and become west to southwest near the coast.
High dispersion indices are possible across the region both Sunday and Monday afternoon.
Otherwise, there are no other fire weather concerns.
A dry pattern will persist through Monday.
Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible for the rest of the week.
Although heavy rain is almost always possible during the summer months, we expect any heavy rain to be very localized and unlikely to significantly affect local river stages.
All rivers are currently well below flood stage.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 72 99 73 98 74 / 10 10 10 20 20
Panama City 77 94 78 93 78 / 10 10 10 20 20
Dothan 74 97 73 98 74 / 10 10 10 20 20
Albany 72 99 73 98 74 / 10 10 20 20 20
Valdosta 71 100 72 100 73 / 10 20 20 30 30
Cross City 72 96 72 95 74 / 10 30 20 30 30
Apalachicola 75 92 78 93 79 / 10 10 10 20 20