.Near Term [Through Today]...
Satellite shows weak short wave moving offshore replaced by
ridging building aloft. Assocd morning showers will thus continue
to shift Ewd and diminish over the next several hours. Given the
very early arrival of morning rain, there should be enough time
during the rest of this morning and early afternoon for cloud
debris and any lingering showers and storms to clear providing a
favorable scenario for good diurnal heating especially Wrn areas.
A H5 shortwave over the Lwr Ms Valley will lift NE and weaken as
it rounds weak upper ridge across the Gulf region. At surface,
weak ridge across S/Cntrl FL and a SW-NE trough over Ern GA/SC.
This yields local WNW low level flow promoting West/gulf sea
breeze. This approaching shortwave lift will provide enough
instability for another round of aftn shwrs and tstms focused
closest to the lift while Ern areas closest to ridge will be more
subdued. The approaching shortwave, seabreeze/outflow mergers
could generate locally heavy rain, strong to even isold severe
storms with at least small hail and gusty winds.
Will go with 50-30% NW-SE POP gradient. Expect highs from low 90s across cloudy west to mid 90s across less cloudy east.
Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
Afternoon convection will be on the decrease through the short
term as a fairly large ridge over the GoM intensifies and persists
in the northern GoM through Sunday. Because we won`t be directly
under the ridge, isolated thunderstorms can not be ruled out, but
warm temperatures will be abundant. Expecting PoP coverage both
days near 15-20%. As is the case in the summer, any lack of
precipitation will tend to yield higher afternoon temps, and this
is what is forecasted through Saturday. Most areas except for
extreme northwestern parts of the forecast area (Dothan) will be
in the middle 90s, with upper 90s attainable in warmer spots and
rain/cloud-free regions on Friday and Saturday. Apparent
temperatures are not expected to reach heat advisory criteria
through the short-term but it is worth watching, especially if
some locations fail to mix well into lower dewpoints.
.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
Until some possible upper level trofing moves in from the SE by very
late in the period (next Wed. or Thu.), a very prolonged stretch of
upper level ridging should be in command of the SE U.S. With the aid
of weak surface high pressure as well, this pattern should result in
an extended period of hot and humid weather for the region, with
just isolated to scattered afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms. High temperatures will likely range from the lower
90s along the coast to the mid to upper 90s well inland.
[Through 12Z Friday]...VFR conditions should prevail through much of
the period. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible, particularly
in the afternoon hours, with IFR VIS possible with the storms. Some
MVFR/IFR CIGS and MVFR VSBYS will be possible after 08Z Fri.
A fairly typical summertime pattern will result in light winds and
low seas outside of convection throughout the next several days.
Red flag conditions are not expected, although slightly hotter and
drier conditions are forecast this weekend into early next week.
No significant widespread precipitation is expected across the
hydrological service area during the next several days. Therefore,
all area rivers and streams are expected to remain at low flows for
the near future.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 94 71 95 71 96 / 40 20 20 10 20
Panama City 89 75 89 75 89 / 40 20 20 20 20
Dothan 92 71 94 72 97 / 50 20 30 20 20
Albany 94 72 94 72 96 / 40 20 20 20 20
Valdosta 96 70 96 70 96 / 40 20 20 20 20
Cross City 93 73 94 70 96 / 30 20 20 20 20
Apalachicola 90 75 89 73 89 / 30 10 10 20 20