Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Expect a decent coverage of summer time pulse convection this
afternoon across the area.
A few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out through this evening given expected SBCAPE values around 3000 j/kg with the best chance across the big bend where the most destabilization is expected.
Convection will begin to diminish after sunset.
Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...
Monday`s weather pattern will be quite similar to this afternoon, with broad, weak troughing across the Southeast.
At the surface, the sea breeze fronts and a weak front across central Georgia and Alabama will drive convection locally.
Expect the highest PoP coverage where convection from the sea breeze and synoptic front merge across north-central Florida and south-central Georgia well into the afternoon.
On Tuesday, there may be a bit more synoptic forcing across the entire Tri-State region as models indicate an MCV exiting the northeast Gulf.
This will likely enhance the sea breeze fronts and yield a more widespread scattering of storms away from the sea breezes.
Afternoon highs will be in the lower to middle 90s for most locations.
Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
Much of the same for the extended range forecast as the local area will likely remain sandwiched between an upper ridge and upper
trough, with only weak synoptic forcing.
Most afternoons will be dominated by sea breeze convection.
Rain chances will remain near average with high temperatures in the middle to upper 90s.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected from this afternoon through this evening with convection rapidly diminishing after sunset.
Winds will be light outside of convection.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail outside of convection.
Relatively light winds and low seas will prevail for the next several days under the influence of surface high pressure.
No red flag concerns are forecast through the upcoming work week.
Rainfall totals for the next 5-7 days will range from 1 to 2 inches across the area.
With all rivers below bank full stage, this rainfall is not expected to cause significant rises on area rivers.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 73 93 72 94 71 / 40 50 30 50 20
Panama City 77 88 75 87 76 / 40 30 20 40 20
Dothan 72 92 71 91 71 / 40 40 30 40 20
Albany 73 93 71 92 71 / 40 40 40 50 30
Valdosta 71 95 71 96 71 / 40 60 40 60 40
Cross City 73 91 71 91 71 / 40 40 30 40 20
Apalachicola 76 87 74 87 76 / 40 30 20 40 20