Near Term [Through Today]...
The main upper features this morning continues to be ridge with high
over W/Cntrl Gulf region.
During the rest of today, this ridge is progged to weaken as it is suppressed Swwd into Wrn Gulf by trough deepening down Ern states.
All aided by series of weak short- waves moving ESE across N GA/AL and into Appalachians.
At surface, persistent W-E ridge from Wrn Atlc to across N/Cntrl Gulf of Mex while upper trough develops surface low over NC with weak boundary Swwd into S/Cntrl GA thru day.
Locally this translates to NWLY low level flow at lower levels and NLY flow above.
With synoptic forcing remaining to our north, the Gulf seabreeze will again be the primary driver of convection with convection moving W-E beginning in the early aftn.
Any seabreeze/boundary clashes aided by diurnal heating and moist and unstable air with high PWATs can generate strong storms with ample lightning, gusty winds and locally heavy rains.
HI RES guidance all show late start.
Will go with late starting 30% except 40% FL Big Bend.
With the slightly below climo coverage of rain and NWLY flow, temperatures will continue to be hot, with inland highs in the mid to upper 90s and heat indices 99 to 103 degrees.
Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
An upper level trough with axis through the Lower Mississippi Valley will persist at least through the short term period.
Deep layer moisture and a few impulses will accompany this feature.
Meanwhile, the surface ridge axis should remain just south of our
CWA keeping the boundary layer moist as well.
This combination along with daytime heating and sea breeze interaction will bring PoPs at or just above seasonal levels (40-60%) each afternoon.
Max temperatures will generally be in the lower to mid 90s inland to
around 90 along the coast.
Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
Lingering surface trough coupled with weak troughiness aloft will keep climo or above rain chances in the forecast through early next week.
This will also push temperatures back down into the lower 90s (near normal for late June).
Guidance diverges by mid to late week with the GFS bringing moisture northward from the deep tropics.
Recent performance of GFS in the tropics makes this a bit dubious, especially without support from the ECMWF, so will show a bit of a decrease in PoPs towards the end of the week, supported by the ECMWF idea of an increase in upper ridging.
VFR conditions should prevail at all terminals for most of period.
Some patchy fog possible thru 12Z Sat.
Scattered thunderstorms could redevelop regionwide from 18Z through around 00z...for now will insert VCTS at that time for all sites.
Brief periods of MVFR/IFR visibility and gusty winds are possible with these storms.
After 08z Sun...expect patchy light fog all but ECP.
West to southwest winds are forecast to continue over the coastal
waters at least into the middle of next week as the subtropical ridge axis remains south of the waters.
Winds and seas may increase slightly on Tuesday and Wednesday.
However, conditions are expected to remain below headline criteria.
Relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical levels for the next several days with gradually increasing rain chances for the latter half of the weekend and continuing into the next work week.
Rainfall totals for the next week will be around 1- 2 inches across the area.
With all rivers below bank full stage, this rainfall is not expected to cause significant rises on area rivers.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 95 73 94 72 93 / 40 20 50 30 50
Panama City 90 78 90 75 90 / 30 20 40 30 40
Dothan 96 74 95 73 93 / 30 30 60 30 50
Albany 97 73 96 73 95 / 30 30 50 30 50
Valdosta 97 72 96 72 95 / 30 30 50 30 50
Cross City 93 73 93 72 92 / 40 20 40 30 40
Apalachicola 89 78 90 75 89 / 30 20 40 30 40