Near Term [Through Tonight]...
A rather typical summer pattern remains in place across our part
of the country with surface and upper level ridging yielding light flow.
This morning`s sounding had more mid level dry air compared to yesterday with PWAT values a bit below climatology.
This dry air combined with a lack of forcing mechanisms is expected to limit convective coverage for the remainder of the afternoon.
However, some isolated to scattered convection is expected through this evening before diminishing quickly by around 03z.
Seasonal overnight lows are expected.
Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
An upper level low situated off the east coast of Florida, evident on current water vapor loops, should drift WNW over the next few days, approaching the Suwannee River vicinity by Thursday.
This progression should lead to a gradual increase in deep moisture,
with PWATs returning closer to normal levels Thursday.
Wednesday should still feature relatively suppressed convection with mid- upper level ridging over the area, but on Thursday should increase into the 30-50% range in most areas with scattered afternoon thunderstorms.
It is likely to continue to be hot and somewhat humid in this time frame as well, with the higher temperatures likely on Wednesday.
With easterly low-level flow, an area of slightly cooler 925-850mb temperatures should be advected into the area gradually in the next couple days.
Therefore, the warmest temperatures each day should generally be in northern and western parts of the area (except the usual warmer locations such as Valdosta).
With boundary layer average temperatures expected to at least be stable or slightly decrease, we generally used observed highs on Monday as an upper bound for highs on Wednesday.
Dewpoints are expected to mix down into the low-mid 60s in the
afternoons at the warmer locations, which should limit heat indices somewhat but still produce values around 100 degrees in some spots.
Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...
Friday, weak upper level ridging and a surface high will remain in
place over the southeastern CONUS.
By Saturday, the upper level flow will become mostly zonal with a weak TUTT in the GOMEX.
PoPs for the weekend will remain near to below climo normals (20-40%).
As a shortwave trough propagates through the Srn Plains Monday,
and reaches the ArkLaTex Tuesday, PoPs will be on the increase
early next week.
The GFS has more amplification from this Plains system and moves it eastward faster than the ECMWF does.
Accounting for these differences, chances for storms will be around 50-60% Monday and 40% Tuesday across most of the forecast area.
Highs over the next week will be in the mid 90s, lower 90s later in the period when sky cover will increase and lows will be in the low 70s.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period.
Although isolated convection is possible this afternoon, coverage appears too low to warrant any explicit mention in the TAFs at this time with the exception of a VCTS at ECP.
A typical summertime pattern will prevail over the coastal waters with winds under 15 knots, seas 2 feet or less, and isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms (especially in the morning).
Some minor enhancements to the onshore winds are possible near the coast each afternoon.
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected for the next
Rain chances today are highest around the Apalachicola area with
storm total rainfall expected to remain less than half an inch.
With all rivers below bank full stage and no significant rainfall events coming up in the forecast, no flooding is forecast through the week.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 71 95 71 94 70 / 20 20 10 50 20
Panama City 75 90 75 89 74 / 30 30 20 40 20
Dothan 72 96 73 96 72 / 10 10 10 30 20
Albany 72 97 71 95 71 / 10 10 10 20 10
Valdosta 69 97 70 95 70 / 10 20 20 40 20
Cross City 69 92 69 90 69 / 30 30 20 50 30
Apalachicola 73 88 74 87 73 / 30 20 10 40 20