Near Term [Through Tonight]...
We have bumped up PoPs into the 40-50% range in the corridor from
Chipley to Woodville, and about 20 miles either side of that line.
Enhanced convergence from several colliding outflow boundaries and
the sea-breeze has lead to a greater concentration of convection
in those areas.
Otherwise, the forecast remains unchanged and the previous near term discussion is appended here.
As expected, convective development across the area today has been
fairly suppressed by an abundance of dry air.
PWATs are below their normal levels for mid-June.
Favored areas for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon should continue to be:
(1) the Florida Panhandle west of the Apalachicola River,
(2) near the Suwannee River in the eastern Big Bend, and
(3) in parts of south-central Georgia near the I-75 corridor.
Overall PoPs are in the 20-30% range, higher in the aforementioned areas.
As the dry mid-level air is entrained into developing updrafts, it should act to weaken the updraft strength in many cases.
Therefore, strong storms are not expected except perhaps where areas of focused sustained convergence can occur (colliding outflow boundaries, for example).
Showers and thunderstorms may linger into the early evening hours but should diminish between 01-04Z. Lows will be near seasonal normals.
Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday Night]...
Our forecast area will be south of a 592 dm high at 500 mb, centered
There will be a weak east-west oriented trough across the FL Peninsula and eastern Gulf of Mexico, though both the GFS and ECMWF forecast this feature to weaken as it moves farther south.
With the 1000-700 mb mean wind out of the east, deep moist
convection may take a little longer than normal to develop, as it takes time for the FL/GA east sea breeze fronts to make it into our forecast area.
The GFS (and WRF models that use GFS boundary conditions) forecast more deep layer moisture on Monday than the ECMWF, implying a higher PoP (near 50%) around the Cross City and Perry area, but 20 to 30% elsewhere.
This is actually pretty close to the easterly flow sea breeze climatology.
On Tuesday both global models forecast plenty of dry air aloft, with only isolated deep moist convection expected.
Highs will be in the mid 90s, lows around 70.
Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...
The deep layer ridge over the Southeast will continue through much
of the period.
The GFS and ECMWF forecast an erosion of this ridge next weekend, but differ on how that will occur.
Forcing for deep moist convection will continue to come mainly from the FL/GA east coast sea breeze fronts (with the 1000-700 mb mean wind from the east).
PoPs will generally be a little below climatology (20-30%- as opposed to climo values of 40-50%) until the weekend, then near climatology for the weekend.
The MOS consensus is slightly warmer than 24 hours ago, which matches the favorable synoptic pattern for above-average temperatures.
We expect highs in the mid to upper 90s and lows around 70, though there could be a site or two that reaches 100 deg later this week.
Generally VFR conditions are expected through the entire period.
A few isolated showers and storms are expected across the area 18-03Z, but if they affect any of the terminals it should be for only a brief time.
Any showers or storms could produce IFR VIS, though.
The marine area will be in the vicinity of a high pressure ridge through mid week, resulting in light and variable winds and low seas.
Winds near the coast will become onshore and increase slightly each afternoon with the strong heating of the land.
No red flag conditions are expected through the period.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms this week are not expected to
have any impact on area rivers which are all below flood stage.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 68 95 70 95 71 / 20 40 30 20 10
Panama City 74 89 75 91 74 / 10 30 20 30 10
Dothan 70 94 72 95 73 / 20 20 20 20 10
Albany 71 95 71 96 71 / 30 20 20 10 10
Valdosta 68 96 68 97 69 / 30 30 20 20 10
Cross City 69 92 68 93 68 / 20 50 30 30 20
Apalachicola 72 88 74 89 74 / 10 20 30 20 20