Near Term [Through Today]...
Yet another disturbed day appears in store for the region, as any
hope of influence from the sea breeze circulation should be quelled
by a significant amount of mid-upper level cloudiness from the
approaching trof to the west.
The sea breeze regime will begin the day strong out of the W-SW (or Type 5), but steadily weaken through the day.
However, with virtually no sea breeze expected, this Wind Vector will serve more in a moisture transport (or removal) role, which will be interesting in its influence on convective development today (ultimately to aid in determining PoP and QPF distribution).
Whereas on Thursday and Friday, deep layer moisture was lacking across the region (TAE sounding PWATs were between 1.14" and 1.30"), almost the opposite effect is appearing to take shape today.
Last night`s 00 UTC TAE sounding (which was not contaminated by a tstm) reached 1.74", or up from 1.30" from the 12 UTC RAOB, while at
Birmingham AL (BMX), the drier air had already made a significant
impact in dropping their PWAT from 1.59" to 1.39", along with a
dramatic influx of very dry air above 650 mb.
With the trof approaching us from the NW, believe this will result in a general increasing PoP distribution from NW to SE over the CWA, although just how dramatic this will be is somewhat uncertain and subject to modification.
For this cycle, expect 20% PoPs well to the NW, to 50+% PoPs well to the SE.
Also, would not be surprised to see some locally heavy rainfall across the SE FL Big Bend before the day is through.
High temps are expected to range from the middle 80s near the coast and the SE Big Bend, to the lower 90s across much of the interior.
Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
In general, deep layer ridging will dominate the Southeast through
The exception will be across north-central Florida and south Georgia where a weak +PV reservoir left behind from a passing shortwave will likely set up a weak surface trough oriented east to west across the aforementioned region on Sunday.
On Monday, another anomaly will break off from a shortwave in the central part of the country, pivot around the ridge axis and dive south
through the Tri-State region.
This disturbance should be a bit weaker than Sunday`s. Essentially what this means is that we`ll see a scattering of storms related to the seabreeze fronts and also a scattering of storms away from the seabreezes due to the surface trough forced by the upper level disturbances (especially on Sunday).
Deep layer moisture will be greatest east of the Apalachicola and Chattahoochee rivers, thus so will PoPs.
Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
The upper level trough that has been causing rain chances this week will shift east.
The weather pattern should be somewhat drier and hotter.
However, there will still be isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms due to sfc heating and sea breeze.
Highs will be in the low to mid 90s.
May see a few locations with MVFR Vis very early this morning, but for the most part, the plentiful mid-upper level cloudiness should protect the terminals from any significant fog formation.
For the day, expect VFR conditions to dominate(albeit with an upper level canopy), but as mentioned above, expect the convection this afternoon to be more focused to the S and E.
Therefore, have one prevailing MVFR convective group at TLH,
Prob 30s at VLD and ECP, but nothing at ABY and DHN at this time.
Moderate southwesterly winds will weaken by Sunday, with low winds
and seas prevailing into next week.
No Red Flag conditions are expected through the period.
All area rivers remain below action stage, with most holding steady or having decreasing water levels.
Impactful rainfall is not expected over the next several days.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 90 70 90 69 90 / 40 30 40 30 40
Panama City 86 76 87 76 88 / 30 20 20 20 20
Dothan 90 70 91 69 92 / 30 30 30 30 30
Albany 91 69 91 69 92 / 30 30 30 30 20
Valdosta 90 69 90 69 90 / 40 30 40 30 30
Cross City 86 70 88 68 90 / 50 20 40 20 40
Apalachicola 86 75 87 73 88 / 40 20 30 20 30