Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The 12Z Tallahassee sounding had a PWAT value of just 1.04", and
the latest GOES blended PWAT product shows there has been little
change over the past 6 hours. Therefore, we still expect convective activity to be fairly suppressed this afternoon.
Development would be most likely near a surface trough and weak
convergence zone in the western half of our forecast area.
Any isolated showers and thunderstorms should diminish quickly around sunset, with a dry night expected.
Lows should be within a few degrees of 70, which is close to climatological normals.
Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
Moisture will begin to make a gradual return across the area from the south with a slow increase in dewpoints. High pressure across the Gulf with a sagging surface front well to our north stretching from the mid Atlantic states to the mid Mississippi valley will allow moisture to gradually advect back into the region from the Gulf.
However, deep layer moisture will still be lacking so expect sea breeze convection each day, although with less coverage than climatology.
Afternoon highs will continue to be quite hot, with mid 90s inland. Overnight lows will begin to increase a degree or so each night as moisture gradually increases.
Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
Models continue to be in general agreement with a longwave trough
developing across the eastern U.S. in response to a building ridge
over the western U.S. This will push the aforementioned cold front
across the Southeast. By Thursday the front will sag across southern GA and southern AL then become stationary as it gradually weakens and washes out over the weekend. The front will be accompanied by deeper moisture and provide a mechanism for convergence, increasing rain chances significantly from what we have seen recently.
PoPs will be in the 40-60% range with a slight cooling of max temperatures due to increased cloud and rain coverage, with overnight lows bumping up a degree or two.
VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period.
A few isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon - mainly at DHN, and possibly at ECP and ABY – but the chances of that occurring are not high enough to warrant mention in the TAFs.
With weak surface high pressure over the Gulf, light onshore winds
and low seas are expected for several days.
Sea breezes will increase wind and waves over the nearshore waters
during the late afternoon and evening hours.
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not anticipated over the next
Although there will be an increase in rainfall toward the end of the
week into the early part of the weekend, no significant rises are
expected on area rivers and streams.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 72 97 73 96 73 / 10 30 10 30 20
Panama City 76 92 77 91 77 / 10 20 10 20 20
Dothan 70 97 72 96 73 / 10 10 10 20 20
Albany 71 96 72 96 73 / 10 10 10 20 20
Valdosta 70 96 71 96 71 / 10 20 10 20 20
Cross City 70 94 72 94 72 / 10 30 20 30 20
Apalachicola 75 90 76 91 76 / 10 20 10 30 20