Near Term [Through Today]...
Another hot day is expected today with Arthur well east of the area and large scale offshore flow acting against the sea breeze.
A weak surface trough will lie across the Florida zones with isolated to
scattered convection expected to develop along it during the
The highest PoPs (30-40%) are focused in the eastern big bend area with lower PoPs the farther northwest one goes.
Afternoon highs generally between 95-100 are expected with heat indices around 100-105.
Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
An upper trough sliding into the eastern seaboard will help to nudge a surface trough through much of the area by Friday morning.
With a drier airmass to the north of this boundary, shower and
thunderstorm activity will be confined to the coastal/eastern Big
The surface trough will linger in the same vicinity for Saturday, with similar impacts on the distribution of convection.
Temperatures will remain rather hot, with mid to upper 90s for high temperatures Friday and Saturday.
However, with the drier airmass yielding lower afternoon dewpoints, heat index values should remain below Heat Advisory criteria both days.
Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
High pressure will build through the period increasing heights in the southeast U.S. and bringing onshore, moist flow across the region beginning Monday.
The weekend will be drier than normal with isolated to scattered convection generally south of I-10.
As moisture increases with the return flow, PoPs will gradually ramp
up to a typical 40-50% early in the week.
Temperatures will be close to seasonal normals with overnight lows in the lower 70s and daytime highs in the mid 90s.
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF.
Isolated to scattered convection is expected this afternoon with
VCTS mentioned for TLH.
Light to moderate west southwesterly flow will continue over the
waters through tonight before becoming offshore late Friday and
Saturday as a weak trough pushes off the coast.
Light onshore flow will return by Sunday and continue into early next week.
Headline conditions are not anticipated.
Some drier air is expected to arrive on Friday and Saturday with RH values dropping into the upper 20s to lower 30s during the afternoon.
However, red flag conditions are still not currently expected.
Hot weather will continue today and tomorrow, with scattered sea
breeze storms pinned primarily along the coast.
With low rainfall totals forecast and area rivers at normal to low levels, no flooding is forecast over the next several days.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 99 71 96 67 97 / 30 20 10 10 20
Panama City 94 76 94 74 93 / 20 10 10 10 10
Dothan 97 70 94 70 97 / 10 10 10 10 10
Albany 98 69 94 68 96 / 10 10 10 10 10
Valdosta 101 70 99 66 96 / 30 20 10 10 40
Cross City 95 75 94 70 94 / 30 30 30 30 30
Apalachicola 91 76 91 73 91 / 20 20 10 10 20