Dothan Area Weather Forecast Jan 6

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
255 PM EST Mon Jan 6 2014

NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

The main concern for the overnight period was related to temperature trends and minimum wind chills.

Temperatures today have generally tracked above model guidance expectations, so we will be starting the evening cooling at a warmer point than our previous forecasts have indicated.

Model guidance overnight also has come in a degree or two warmer in general.

We continue to lean toward warmer raw model guidance as the boundary layer is expected to be well-mixed with winds around 10 knots overnight.

There weren`t major changes made to the forecast overnight, but the
slightly warmer trend makes sub-zero wind chills less likely in
our forecast area.

Wind chill guidance has become more tightly clustered around the middle single digits in the northern part of our area for 12z Tuesday.

Therefore, we have converted the Wind Chill Watch to a Wind Chill Advisory, as warning criteria in our forecast area is 0.

We also still expect a long-duration hard freeze overnight, and the freeze may not end during the day Tuesday in the northern third of the area (more on that in the next discussion section).

Everywhere else, durations below freezing look to be around 12 hours in the far SE (near Cross City) to around 18-20 hours near the Florida and Alabama/Georgia border regions.

SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

Temperatures will remain very cold on Tuesday as a the arctic high
tracks eastward along the northern Gulf Coast.

Looking at the recent performance of the guidance with temperatures in our area as well as upstream, the raw daytime guidance appears to be running a little to cold, so have kept max temps for Tuesday a bit closer to the MOS guidance.

Even with this adjustment, still expect temperatures across the northern counties to remain below freezing all day on Tuesday.

South of this, expect highs only in the mid 30s.

The forecast max temperature of 35 at Tallahassee would be the coldest max temperature since 1996.

Another hard freeze is expected on Wednesday morning as the
anticyclone makes its closest approach to the area.

Two factors may impact the eventual lows by diminishing the effect of
radiational cooling.

First, as the night wears on, the surface high will be sliding northeast into the Carolina Piedmont. This will allow the gradient to tighten slightly across the forecast area, possibly generating just enough wind to keep the boundary layer from fully decoupling.

Second, models are indicating some high clouds moving across the southern half of the area Tuesday night, which would further diminish radiational cooling.

Given these factors, have kept min temperatures closer to raw guidance numbers and above the lower/mid teens suggested by the MOS guidance.

This will lead to lows in the upper teens to lower 20s for most of the
area, still firmly in hard freeze territory.

The airmass will modify on Wednesday, with highs reaching the
upper 40s to lower 50s.

Moisture will begin to increase from the east Wednesday night, with lows ranging from the upper 20s over the western zones to the lower 40s in the southeastern Big Bend.

Another hard freeze is not expected at this time.

LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...

As an upper level trough lifts up the NErn CONUS, the Arctic airmass
will shift northeastward and allow the slow return of warmer, moist
air to the region.

By the end of the week, two shortwave impulses will propagate through the upper level longwave pattern.

On Thursday, the first impulse will increase moisture and rain chances along the coast east of Panama City.

The second impulse will deepen more and is forecast to develop a
cold front that will move through the area Saturday and Sunday (rain
chances 30-50%).

Temperatures Thursday will be closer to average with highs in the 50s and lows in the 40s Thursday night .

Daytime temperatures across the area will warm to the upper 60s and low 70s for the weekend.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions at all terminals now with skies clearing.

Northwest winds will be gusty through 22-00z, with NW winds around 10 knots tonight and Tuesday morning.

MARINE...

Winds gusting to gale force and waves over 10 feet will gradually
diminish starting this evening as high pressure moves eastward
along the northern Gulf Coast.

Expect the offshore Gale Warning to be dropped by the evening update, with Small Craft Advisories continuing through late Tuesday morning.

Conditions will then continue to slowly improve through late week with light to moderate northeasterly flow.

FIRE WEATHER...

Relative humidity values will plunge into the low 20s Tuesday as
more of the very dry, cold air moves into the region.

Winds will lower as the surface high pressure slides further south, however, preventing us from reaching red flag criteria.

Moisture will begin to return to the region Wednesday.

No red flag conditions are anticipated fore the next several days.

HYDROLOGY...

The only river that remains near flood stage is the Apalachicola River near Blountstown.

The river is curently at 14.8 feet and is expected to reach flood stage early tomorrow morning.

The river will continue to rise to 15.9 feet on Wednesday morning and then will fall below flood stage by Thursday morning.

The next chance for measurable rainfall is Thursday but more likely Saturday.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee 21 35 19 52 37 / 0 0 0 0 10
Panama City 24 36 27 50 37 / 0 0 0 0 10
Dothan 16 32 17 48 31 / 0 0 0 0 10
Albany 17 32 17 49 31 / 0 0 0 0 10
Valdosta 20 34 20 51 37 / 0 0 0 0 20
Cross City 24 39 23 58 44 / 0 0 0 0 20
Apalachicola 24 36 26 51 40 / 0 0 0 0 10

TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...
Hard Freeze Warning until 1 PM EST /Noon CST/ Tuesday for
Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal
Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-
Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-
Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-
Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-
Madison-South Walton-Washington.

Hard Freeze Warning from 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ Tuesday to 11 AM
EST /10 AM CST/ Wednesday for Calhoun-Central Walton-
Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-
Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-
Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-
Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-
Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton-
Washington.

Wind Chill Advisory from 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening to 1
PM EST /Noon CST/ Tuesday for Calhoun-Central Walton-
Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-
Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-
Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-
Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-
Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton-
Washington.

GA...
Hard Freeze Warning until 1 PM EST Tuesday for Brooks-Decatur-
Grady-Lanier-Lowndes-Seminole-Thomas.

Hard Freeze Warning from 6 PM Tuesday to 11 AM EST Wednesday
for Brooks-Decatur-Grady-Lanier-Lowndes-Seminole-Thomas.

Wind Chill Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Tuesday
for Brooks-Decatur-Grady-Lowndes-Seminole-Thomas.

Hard Freeze Warning until 11 AM EST Wednesday for Baker-Ben Hill-
Berrien-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Dougherty-Early-Irwin-
Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Terrell-Tift-Turner-
Worth.

Wind Chill Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for Baker-Ben Hill-
Berrien-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Dougherty-Early-Irwin-
Lanier-Lee-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Terrell-Tift-
Turner-Worth.

AL...
Hard Freeze Warning until 10 AM CST Wednesday for Coffee-Dale-
Geneva-Henry-Houston.

Wind Chill Advisory until Noon CST Tuesday for Coffee-Dale-
Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for Apalachee Bay-
Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
Destin FL out 20 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM EST Tuesday
for Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20
to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to
60 NM.

Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for Waters from
Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


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