Near Term [Through Today]...
Expect another virtual repeat of conditions across the region today as we had on Friday, with High temperatures ranging from the upper 90s to the lower 100s.
With Sfc dewpoints still expected to rise into the lower to middle 70s, Heat Indices will be elevated to dangerous levels once again across the Tri-State Region.
We were able to trim back the Excessive Heat Warning to Franklin county in the FL Big Bend, but in much of the FL Panhandle (where dewpoints are still expected to be just a bit higher than most locations) still issued another Excessive Heat Warning for all but Inland Walton, Holmes, and Jackson counties.
For these northern Panhandle Areas, as well as the rest of the CWA, expect peak Heat Indices to rise to between 108 and 112 degrees, which warranted a continuation of the Heat Advisory.
However, for Franklin county and the remainder of the Florida Panhandle, still expect Heat Indices to top out between 110 and 114 degrees, which will be the first time in quite a while where back to back Excessive Heat Warnings have been issued.
As for PoPs, with the 1000-700mb Mean Layer Vector Wind (MLVW) still out of the NW at 5 to 10 kts, still expect a Type 8 Sea Breeze Day, although it should not be quite as convectively active as climatology would suggest with Upper Level Ridging still in control of our region. Our locally derived ECAM (Ensemble of Convective Allowing Models) PoPs seemed to capture this quite well, so used these rain chances almost verbatim for this afternoon.
This gives us just slight chance (20%) PoPs for most of the FL Big Bend and Panhandle, with a smaller area of 30% further to the SE, and near 40% over Dixie county alone.
Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
The ridge center will move further west of the region by Sunday as a large trough slides down the east coast. This will push a backdoor front into the region by Sunday evening.
Ahead of this boundary, expect scattered thunderstorms to develop late in the afternoon. Some of these storms could be strong given how unstable the airmass is anticipated to be ahead of the boundary.
Temperatures will still be hot, but a couple degrees cooler than the past few days.
A heat advisory may be needed for a portion of the region on Sunday afternoon, but with the increased rain chances, confidence isn`t high enough to extend the heat advisory into Sunday at this time.
By Monday, the models begin to differ on how much drier air comes in from the northeast. Our region will be between the large ridge across the Mid Mississippi River Valley a tropical disturbance east of the Bahamas.
Rain chances should be less on Monday afternoon with some drier air working into the region.
Additionally, temperatures should cool a few more degrees with highs generally in the mid 90s.
Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
The aforementioned front will pass through our region by Monday evening bringing with it drier air and more seasonable afternoon high temperatures.
By mid to late week, scattered sea breeze storms should be expected once again.
VFR conditions are once again expected to prevail through the next 24 hours, with just a brief period of MVFR level Vis possible early this morning at ECP and VLD, before the heat and humidity overtake the terminals once again.
There will be some threat for afternoon showers and thunderstorms once again this afternoon, but these are expected to be mainly confined near the coast with only 20% PoPs at TLH and ECP, so no mention of even VCTS was made in the Tafs at this time.
Light winds and seas will remain in place through the weekend.
Easterly winds will increase on Monday as the gradient tightens between an area of high pressure across the Mid Atlantic States and a tropical disturbance east of the Bahamas.
A period of cautionary conditions looks likely Monday and continuing into Tuesday.
With plenty of heat and high humidity, no Red Flag conditions are expected anytime in the near future.
Widely scattered showers and storms are expected through most of the weekend.
On Sunday, a front will pass through the area from northeast to southwest bringing with it a good chance for rain for most locations across the Tri-State region.
However, rainfall amounts will be insignificant and all area rivers will remain below action stage.
Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 101 77 98 75 94 / 20 10 40 40 20
Panama City 96 80 96 80 91 / 20 10 20 40 20
Dothan 100 76 99 75 93 / 10 10 40 40 10
Albany 100 77 97 74 92 / 10 10 50 40 10
Valdosta 101 74 97 73 92 / 10 10 50 40 10
Cross City 98 75 97 74 93 / 40 10 40 40 20
Apalachicola 96 80 94 81 91 / 30 10 30 40 20
Heat Advisory from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for Coastal Dixie-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Dixie-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison.
Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM EDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning to 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-South Walton-Washington.
Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.